A growing consensus among analysts is emerging regarding the potential end of Bitcoin”s traditional four-year cycle, which is closely linked to halving events. These events halve the rewards for miners, subsequently reducing the influx of new Bitcoin into the market. This historical cycle has typically involved a pattern of accumulation followed by a bull run that peaks roughly 18 months post-halving, eventually leading to a sharp correction and a prolonged bear market.
Despite some analysts observing that Bitcoin”s recent price patterns align with this cycle, recent developments have sparked debate. For instance, Bitcoin has faced a 30% decline from its peak in the year following the last halving, indicating that it may have entered a bearish phase. Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, pointed out to Cointelegraph that signs of the halving cycle losing its effectiveness began to emerge in 2025. He attributes this shift to a surge in institutional investment driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury allocations, which have reportedly mitigated the expected post-peak crashes and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.
In December, Grayscale made a bullish prediction, forecasting that Bitcoin could achieve a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. Their optimism is rooted in anticipated macroeconomic conditions, including currency debasement and a favorable regulatory landscape in the United States. In the same vein, Standard Chartered”s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, recently stated that the traditional cycle theory appears “no longer valid,” revising the bank”s forecast for Bitcoin to $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Contrarily, several industry figures, including Ark Invest”s CEO Cathie Wood and others like Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal, concur that the notion of the four-year cycle may be outdated. They argue that changing market dynamics necessitate a reevaluation of established patterns.
However, some analysts maintain that the four-year cycle remains intact. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, noted that Bitcoin officially entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming one of the first major risk assets to reflect signs of a slowing economy. Analyst “Rekt Capital” has also asserted that while the cycle”s integrity may be questioned, it is merely evolving rather than breaking.
Further supporting this perspective, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, known as “PlanB,” attributed much of the recent selling pressure to seasoned investors traumatized by the 2021 market dynamics, alongside those who anticipate a bear market two years post-halving.
In summary, while opinions diverge on the status of Bitcoin”s four-year cycle, the interplay of institutional interest, macroeconomic factors, and trader sentiment will likely continue to shape its trajectory in the coming years.
