Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical phase as it approaches the end of 2025, with traders focused on securing a positive yearly candle. As the weekend unfolds, BTC has been experiencing an unusually calm trading environment, with recent analysis pointing to a three-day bullish divergence that could provide support.
Currently down 6% year-to-date, the cryptocurrency is at risk of marking a historically bearish post-halving year. Data from TradingView indicates that BTC price action is hovering near $88,000 after two consecutive days of minimal volatility. This market stagnation follows a significant options expiry event that saw $24 billion in activity, which many believe has contributed to the current price suppression.
Amidst the subdued price movements, traders are considering the implications of a relative strength index (RSI) divergence observed on the three-day charts. Analyst Jelle noted on X that Bitcoin has managed to establish a three-day bullish divergence at a crucial support level. He speculated that previous instances of similar divergences led to price recoveries, raising hopes for a repeat performance.
Trader BitBull expressed optimism regarding the seasonal trends impacting BTC in the coming year. He suggested that institutional investors may begin reallocating funds to underperforming assets in January, a move that could help propel Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark. He indicated that the market might experience a few more days of sideways trading before a potential breakout occurs.
Traders like Aksel Kibar are not surprised by the current lack of volatility, attributing it to the sharp price increases observed in the third quarter of the year. He emphasized that volatility tends to be cyclical, suggesting that a more dynamic trading environment could soon return.
As the 2025 yearly candle draws near, concerns linger about Bitcoin”s potential to close the year in the red. This would be a significant departure from the typical four-year cycle that has characterized Bitcoin price movements in recent history. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, highlighted the importance of the yearly candle”s color, asserting that the closing price is what ultimately matters, despite any wicks that may extend beyond key levels.
The yearly open, estimated around $93,500, could be revisited for a last-minute test as the year comes to a close. The outcome of these final trading days could set the tone for Bitcoin“s performance in 2026, making it a pivotal moment for investors.
This article does not constitute investment advice, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research when making trading decisions.
