The year is closing with Bitcoin facing turbulent price fluctuations, currently around $20,000 lower than its value when Donald Trump was inaugurated as president. This marks the third consecutive year of decline for BTC on a yearly basis. Retail interest appears to have diminished, as evidenced by Google Trends revealing that Bitcoin-related searches are at their lowest level in a year.
Conversely, not all assets are experiencing downturns similar to Bitcoin”s. Silver, following the lead of gold, has recently achieved a breakout not seen in over four decades. Historically, increased strength in precious metals has indicated a change in liquidity conditions, often leading to a subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices, albeit with a delay.
The current chart patterns for silver exhibit a familiar trajectory characterized by prolonged consolidation, gradual upward movements, and a series of setbacks before significant progress was made. Bitcoin”s current structure mirrors this pattern. Although this “painful” phase may be uncomfortable, it is typically where positive momentum begins to build.
Liquidity does not always present itself immediately; it often surfaces in alternative markets first. The recent uptick in precious metals suggests that financial conditions are beginning to ease. This lagging behavior is normal, and Bitcoin”s price movements frequently frustrate stakeholders just before a major uptrend begins. The market is once again in a phase of sharp pullbacks and sideways trading designed to test investor resolve, yet the chances are increasing that Bitcoin will respond to overarching macroeconomic factors.
While the widely accepted four-year Bitcoin price cycle is based on limited historical data, longer-term economic cycles—like the 18-year real estate trend and the Benner cycle—indicate that 2026 could represent a significant peak. The alignment of Bitcoin and crypto activities with real-world business cycles has been consistent. Factors such as extended US debt refinancing and post-pandemic monetary policy have stretched the current cycle, postponing the explosive growth anticipated post-halving. This delay accounts for the muted price action observed in Bitcoin.
Encouraging signs are emerging, with leading indicators beginning to stabilize. Historical data suggests that when these metrics improve, Bitcoin price rallies often follow. This December might not signal an end but rather a new beginning.
In terms of market sentiment, recent derivatives data reflects a cooling in leverage, neutral funding rates, and diminished speculation. On-chain analytics indicate ongoing accumulation by whales, even as market sentiment remains in a state of fear. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently registers at 32.98, indicating fear, a slight increase from the previous day.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been consolidating above crucial support levels, with panic selling seemingly abating. As liquidity continues to improve, Bitcoin is expected to follow the upward trajectory of precious metals, with 2026 shaping up to be the peak of the cycle. It is essential to remember that Bitcoin is positioned to transform the banking system fundamentally.
“The banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs,” stated Thomas Jefferson.
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