In a recent analysis, Bitcoin expert Plan C cautioned that adhering strictly to historical cycle theories could result in “the biggest financial mistake of the decade.” As Bitcoin hovers around $87,661, Plan C presented an array of charts challenging the notion that the current market will replicate previous bull cycles.
This analysis highlights a macroeconomic landscape where traditional business-cycle indicators are weak while demand for hard assets, particularly gold, remains robust. This dynamic can significantly alter the timing of potential price movements for Bitcoin, even if its long-term trajectory remains positive.
Two key charts, sourced from TechDev_52, illustrate how Bitcoin has maintained its value despite a declining business-cycle measure. The latest reading from the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November indicated a contraction at 48.2, with the forthcoming December data set to be released in early January. This ongoing weakness in manufacturing signals a challenging environment for price stability.
Plan C”s framework indicates that if market conditions shift toward looser financial policies, Bitcoin might become more sensitive to liquidity changes than to growth dynamics. This could potentially allow it to sustain strength even with PMIs below the critical 50 threshold.
Conversely, if such liquidity support fails to materialize, the resilience of Bitcoin could weaken, leading to quicker retracements. By employing the “Bitcoin Quantile Model,” Plan C emphasizes a statistical approach rather than a mere historical analogy, positioning today”s price within a broader long-term distribution.
At the current price point of approximately $87,620, the model suggests that Bitcoin is situated near the 30th quantile, indicating it is below the median range despite nearing historical highs in dollar value. The quantile bands delineate potential price movements over three months, suggesting a range from about $80,000 at the 15th quantile to $127,000 at the median.
Additionally, a separate panel linked to the PMI standardizes Bitcoin and business-cycle data into z-scores, revealing a disconnect between Bitcoin“s strength and the current economic indicators. This situation presents three possible outcomes for the near future: a rebound in PMI aligning with Bitcoin, a continued weak PMI alongside stable Bitcoin prices, or a further decline in PMI correlating with a Bitcoin pullback.
Another significant aspect of the analysis is the relative performance of Bitcoin against gold, which is currently priced at around $4,458 per ounce. This positions Bitcoin at approximately 19.7 ounces of gold per coin. A rally in Bitcoin could coexist with a declining BTC-gold ratio if gold appreciates at a faster rate.
In conclusion, as markets brace for the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release in early January, the trends observed in Bitcoin and its interplay with traditional economic indicators will be crucial for investors navigating the uncertain landscape of 2026 pricing.
