Bitcoin is anticipated to face a tough year in 2026, as numerous analysts predict the cryptocurrency will prolong its downturn that began in late 2025. Nevertheless, early adopters argue that this period may usher in a significant enhancement in Bitcoin“s practical applications, particularly as the payment infrastructure evolves, making it easier to utilize BTC as a medium of exchange.
According to early investor Michael Terpin, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may reach a low of approximately $60,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially presenting a strategic buying opportunity. Terpin stated, “The end of 2026 will be a great time to buy, as market lows based on fear slowly give way to massive buying in 2028 and 2029 after the next halving leads to potential supply shock.”
Despite the challenges, Bitcoin maintains about a 20% likelihood of achieving new highs before the anticipated cycle low; however, this probability diminishes with each month, Terpin indicated. He also noted that a new chair at the Federal Reserve could facilitate improved macroeconomic conditions by reducing interest rates. Conversely, if the Republican Party fails to secure a majority in both chambers of Congress during the 2026 midterm elections, it may severely impede the pro-crypto regulatory landscape.
The outlook for 2025 was previously optimistic, with projections for Bitcoin ranging from $180,000 to $250,000 by year-end. However, BTC is currently on track to conclude 2025 at a price lower than the peaks exceeding $100,000 seen in January. This shift breaks the long-held four-year cycle theory prevalent in BTC market analysis.
Despite the projected price decline, the infrastructure for Bitcoin payments is set to expand significantly. Rich Rines, an early adopter and blockchain software developer, pointed out that while 2025 made holding Bitcoin and earning yield more straightforward, 2026 will focus on enhancing its usability. He highlighted the emergence of Bitcoin neobanks, online banking services backed by Bitcoin, and Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, all contributing to its effectiveness in transactions.
Payments company Square has integrated Bitcoin payments into its point-of-sale systems, enabling merchants to accept BTC and convert a portion of their sales into Bitcoin if they choose. Additionally, the Bitcoin Lightning Network, a layer-2 scaling solution, streamlines transactions by creating payment channels that minimize friction. Graham Krizek, founder of the Lightning Network payment firm Voltage, suggested that the Lightning Network could capture 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028.
As the landscape for Bitcoin continues to evolve, the interplay between price dynamics and infrastructure development will be crucial in shaping its future utility and adoption.
