As tensions escalate in Iran, cryptocurrency enthusiasts are increasingly placing bets on a potential U.S. military intervention. Reports indicate a significant rise in fatalities during the ongoing unrest, prompting speculation about President Donald Trump”s military intentions. According to data from Polymarket, the odds that the U.S. will strike Iran by January 16 have climbed from 27% to 32% within a single day.
The probability of military action occurring by the end of this month stands at 48%, while the likelihood of a strike by March 31 is currently at 65%. This surge in betting has attracted nearly $9 million in wagers on the outcome, with the market resolving to “Yes” if the U.S. launches a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian territory, including its diplomatic missions. However, strikes that are intercepted will not be counted.
In contrast, the chance of a ground invasion by U.S. forces remains low, with only a 9% probability projected by January 31. Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain, has faced criticism for its betting events that seem to profit from global conflicts. A disclaimer on their website states that prediction markets could provide crucial insights to those impacted by such events, offering information not readily available through mainstream news outlets.
The increasing bets come as the Trump administration reportedly considers various military options in response to anti-regime protests in Iran, which have now entered their 15th consecutive day. Senior officials from key national security agencies are expected to brief Trump on possible responses to the escalating violence, as reported by The Washington Post.
Amid these developments, Trump expressed via his Truth Social account that “Iran is looking at Freedom,” indicating that the U.S. is prepared to provide support. In response, Iranian officials have warned of retaliation against any U.S. aggression, threatening to target American military bases in the region.
The unrest in Iran has turned deadly, with at least 544 fatalities reported by the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based organization. Additionally, over 10,600 individuals have been detained amid the protests, which were initially sparked by frustrations over the declining national currency and soaring inflation. Iranian state media has reported that more than 100 members of the nation”s security forces have also lost their lives during the protests.
As the situation unfolds, the implications for both geopolitical stability and the cryptocurrency betting market will be closely monitored by investors and analysts alike.
