Global investment firm VanEck has released its outlook for the first quarter of 2026, predicting a favorable risk-on environment for investors. This optimism is rooted in enhanced fiscal visibility and clearer monetary policy, suggesting that the market could see a rebound after years of uncertainty.
According to VanEck, the shrinking of U.S. fiscal deficits as a percentage of GDP from the highs recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic is a crucial factor contributing to this positive forecast. This stabilization aids in anchoring long-term interest rates and mitigating potential market risks.
In a notable shift, CEO Jan van Eck has classified digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), alongside sectors like artificial intelligence, gold, and private credit as newly appealing investment opportunities. Van Eck highlighted that investors now have a clearer outlook on fiscal and monetary policy, a significant change from the volatility experienced in recent years.
Despite the optimistic macroeconomic environment, VanEck has adopted a cautious approach regarding Bitcoin. The firm noted that Bitcoin”s historical four-year cycle appeared to have broken in 2025, complicating short-term price predictions. As a result, VanEck is taking a more conservative position on Bitcoin over the next three to six months, although some executives within the firm maintain a more bullish perspective.
Currently, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from both stock and gold markets, especially after a significant deleveraging event in October. Recently, Bitcoin traded at approximately $92,000 after experiencing fluctuations in the low $90,000 range. Analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency operates within a low-leverage environment, indicating that much of the previous year”s excess has been removed.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe forecasts that Bitcoin could potentially rise to $100,000 if it surpasses the $92,000 mark within a short timeframe. The sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is further bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties and a generally optimistic view of risk assets, indicating that the cryptocurrency may be poised for a resurgence.
Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could further influence market dynamics, with expectations of fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies favoring risk assets. Researcher Tim Sun from HashKey Group noted that these conditions collectively create a favorable macroeconomic landscape for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2026.
As the year progresses, the interplay between fiscal policies, investment strategies, and cryptocurrency dynamics will be crucial in shaping market trends. Investors are advised to stay informed as significant developments unfold in the cryptocurrency landscape.
