A prominent Web3 expert has issued a prediction regarding a potential shutdown of the US government by February 14, stirring discussions about its implications for the cryptocurrency market. As February unfolds, the crypto sector is already experiencing significant downturns, with bear market sentiments intensifying and pushing the markets into extreme fear.
The last government shutdown occurred between October and November of 2025, during which the cryptocurrency market suffered a shocking loss of $20 billion in a single day. This event is widely regarded as a catalyst for the subsequent bear market, potentially foreshadowing a similar trajectory for 2026, with analysts suggesting that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may face further declines.
The expert”s assertion is supported by a social media post from President Trump, which calls for a government shutdown, citing historical precedents. The post reflects concerns that history may repeat itself, as gold and silver reached new all-time high prices during the last shutdown before experiencing a notable pullback.
For investors holding various assets—including stocks, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and the US dollar—the expert warns that a shutdown could lead to a significant data blackout. This situation would result in four expected reactions, including a collateral shock where prior credit warnings may trigger downgrades. The expert indicates that this shutdown could disrupt the financial system, as significant capital has already shifted into lower-risk assets.
In the absence of crucial economic data such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, balance sheets, initial job reports, and interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve and risk models would be left in the dark regarding current economic conditions. Consequently, the US economy could face a recession risk, losing approximately 0.2% of GDP for each week of shutdown, further exacerbating an already bearish market.
The prediction concludes with a 70% likelihood of the shutdown occurring. However, some analysts argue that government shutdown headlines do not inherently trigger liquidity events. They suggest that markets respond more to funding stress, collateral strain, and interest rate dislocations rather than social media-driven probabilities. If the situation were truly systemic, one would expect to see it reflected in existing spreads and liquidity indicators.
Additionally, there is a viewpoint that markets have historically shown resilience during government shutdowns. For instance, the 2018-2019 shutdown lasted 35 days, and during that period, the SPY index actually recorded a 13% gain. While short-term volatility is expected, claims that a shutdown could “break the system” overlook the adaptability and resilience of financial markets through numerous previous shutdowns.
