Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000, experiencing a decline after previously holding above $92,000. The cryptocurrency is now confronted with a significant macroeconomic challenge as traders anticipate a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that may be announced on Friday. This decision pertains to the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law typically utilized for sanctions during national emergencies.
The tariffs in question, referred to as “Liberation Day” tariffs, were instituted in early 2025 and range from 10% to 50% on various global imports. These tariffs specifically target imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, addressing concerns related to fentanyl trafficking. Trump”s administration argued that ongoing trade deficits and national security risks warranted such emergency measures. However, this position has faced legal challenges, with both the U.S. Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court ruling that Trump overstepped his authority, highlighting that Congress holds the primary power over tariffs.
As the Supreme Court deliberated in November, skepticism was expressed across a spectrum of ideological viewpoints. While the court does not typically disclose its decisions in advance, it has suggested that rulings could emerge on January 9. Should the court decide to invalidate these tariffs, the financial ramifications could be substantial. Reports indicate that over $133.5 billion in duties might qualify for refunds, raising concerns about fiscal impacts and subsequent policies.
Trump has claimed these tariffs generated approximately $600 billion in revenue, a statistic that has contributed to anxiety in the markets regarding potential refund obligations and the implications for Treasury financing. The effects of this ruling on Bitcoin are being closely monitored by traders, not because tariffs have a direct influence on Bitcoin”s blockchain, but due to the broader implications of macroeconomic shocks on risk assets. Historical patterns show that during previous trade escalations, Bitcoin often saw declines aligned with equities as liquidity became constrained and risk appetite diminished.
In light of these developments, discussions on social media have intensified. Notable trader Wimar.X predicted that Friday could be “the worst day of 2026,” arguing that a negative ruling could compel markets to reassess refund obligations, emergency policy responses, and retaliation risks simultaneously. “That”s not clarity. That”s chaos,” he remarked.
Prediction markets have begun to reflect these apprehensions. On Polymarket, the odds suggest a robust probability (76%) that the court will overturn the tariffs, indicating a perception among traders that the potential downside risks may be underestimated. Nevertheless, not all analysts foresee a prolonged selloff for Bitcoin. Currently, the immediate risk appears more tied to volatility rather than a specific directional shift. The cryptocurrency remains sensitive to fluctuations in yields, equities, and dollar liquidity. A significant risk-off movement could lead to lower prices, especially with Bitcoin still trading below critical resistance levels near $94,000 to $95,000. Conversely, a ruling that alleviates uncertainty may trigger a temporary relief rally.
The overriding question remains: whether a Supreme Court decision will reshape the broader macroeconomic landscape for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
