Pi Squared has released a report emphasizing that 2026 will be a critical year for the evolution of payment systems, driven by advancements in regulation, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. The report outlines a future where payments become a robust, always-on infrastructure that is globally interconnected.
According to the analysis, the focus in 2026 will shift from surface-level user experiences to enhancing the foundational systems that ensure scalability and trust. The industry will witness integration and reliability as the primary goals rather than prioritizing speed or novelty in products. The three main forces identified as reshaping the landscape are regulatory frameworks, real-time payment behaviors, and the rise of autonomous systems.
Regulatory bodies are formalizing fast-growing markets, as observed with the UK”s Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) consumer credit regulations and Europe”s PSD3 standards. These measures are designed to enhance transparency, protect consumers, and improve interoperability, fostering sustainable growth and broader adoption.
Real-time transaction capabilities are becoming the norm, with instant settlements, refunds, and liquidity updates anticipated by both merchants and consumers. The rise of open banking APIs is facilitating this shift, as back-office operations adapt to meet immediate reconciliation needs.
Additionally, autonomous AI systems are starting to facilitate transactions on a larger scale. Innovations such as Visa”s Trusted Agent Protocol and Mastercard”s Agent Pay illustrate that AI-driven commerce is transitioning from experimental phases to mainstream applications, with expectations of substantial growth in AI-managed transaction volumes.
Key Trends Shaping Payments in 2026
The report identifies several trends that will characterize successful organizations in the payments ecosystem. These firms will approach payments as essential infrastructure, designing systems that are capable of operating in parallel instead of sequentially. Compliance and transparency will be integrated into these systems, accommodating both human and AI-initiated transactions executed in milliseconds.
The normalization of real-time payment rails is highlighted as a fundamental trend, supporting business operations, treasury management, and customer interactions. Early adopters in markets like India and Brazil demonstrate that 24/7 visibility and instant settlement capabilities allow for effective liquidity management and operational efficiency, necessitating immediate fraud and risk prevention measures.
Account-to-account flows and Variable Recurring Payments are expanding beyond simple transfers to encompass retail payments, subscriptions, and utility bills. These systems minimize intermediary fees and enhance operational efficiency through richer transaction metadata and advanced authentication methods.
Embedded Finance and the Rise of Stablecoins
As embedded finance transitions from a mere convenience to indispensable enterprise infrastructure, it will provide regulated services for various financial operations such as payments and lending. The intersection of regulatory pressures and the demand for top-tier solutions is pushing companies toward modular architectures that support rapid innovation and compliance.
Open finance is broadening access to diverse financial data, enabling real-time affordability assessments and personalized financial experiences. AI agents are also emerging as economic participants, autonomously conducting high-frequency transactions, which necessitates the creation of new payment rails and verification frameworks.
Furthermore, the use of stablecoins in enterprise payments is gaining traction, especially for B2B treasury and cross-border transactions. They promise near-instant settlement and lower costs, optimally utilized when integrated with compliant workflows and mature liquidity systems.
However, blockchain networks may encounter scalability challenges as AI-driven transaction volumes continue to surge. The need for infrastructure modernization is critical, with expectations leaning towards horizontally scalable, massively parallel settlement systems that avoid global bottlenecks.
Industry experts agree that 2026 will mark a significant turning point in payments as they evolve into a comprehensive financial infrastructure. The interplay of regulatory frameworks, the demand for real-time transactions, and the rise of AI systems as economic entities will drive this transformation. Organizations that prioritize scalability, trust, and verifiability over mere user experience will likely emerge as leaders in the evolving payments landscape.
