A trader on Polymarket has drawn significant attention after reportedly profiting over $128,000 from bets linked to a potential Israeli military strike on Iran. This event has rekindled discussions around possible insider trading as trading volumes surged on the platform.
The trader, known as Rundeep, began accumulating shares in the market predicting an “Israel attacks Iran by January 31, 2026.” On January 6, this wallet initiated its position when the odds were around 21 cents, and as other traders noticed the activity, the “Yes” odds spiked above 30 cents, pushing the total market volume close to $2 million.
By January 7, Rundeep had exited the entire position, allegedly after changing the account name and withdrawing funds. On-chain data confirms that this trade yielded over $128,000, raising questions about whether the gains were based on mere speculation or access to privileged information.
On social media platform X, users drew parallels to a prior incident involving a wallet that profited during the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict. Accounts like PredictFolio and MonitorX suggested that this wallet might belong to an insider within the Israeli military, given its history of precise bets solely related to Israeli operations.
Seven months earlier, an account identified as “ricosuave666” had accurately predicted the date of an Israeli strike on Iran, resulting in a profit of $154,000. This account has resurfaced on Polymarket, making significant bets on another anticipated strike by January 31.
While these claims remain unverified, they have sparked renewed debate on whether traders with access to sensitive geopolitical information can exploit prediction markets. This incident echoes a recent case where a trader turned $30,000 into over $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before it became public knowledge, prompting calls in Washington for restrictions on betting involving politically sensitive events.
Despite the legality of prediction markets, critics argue that the distinction between informed forecasting and insider trading becomes increasingly blurred when real-world military actions are involved. The timing is also noteworthy as Polymarket recently introduced taker fees for ultra-short crypto markets to enhance liquidity and address high-frequency trading concerns, yet these measures do not resolve the issues surrounding information asymmetry in geopolitical betting.
Ultimately, this recent trade concerning Israel and Iran highlights a persistent tension within prediction markets: while accuracy is essential, overly precise predictions can attract scrutiny and raise ethical questions.
