Solana (SOL) has recently experienced a significant decline, dropping 38% over the past month and hitting a two-year low of $67. This downturn has positioned SOL as the seventh largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Analysts suggest that the current bearish trend may not yet be over, with potential price targets as low as $50.
The price of SOL has plummeted more than 72% since reaching a cycle peak of approximately $295 in January 2025. Various analysts have spotted a classic head-and-shoulders pattern across multiple time frames, which typically indicates further price declines. One notable analysis by Bitcoinsensus highlights that SOL has broken below the neckline of this pattern, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be poised for even lower prices.
Another analyst, known as Nextiscrypto, echoed these concerns, stating that the measured move from the head-and-shoulders formation points to a target around $45. Meanwhile, a pseudonymous analyst, Shitpoastin, observed a broader pattern on the monthly chart that indicates a possible drop to $30.
Recent trading activity shows that SOL broke below the neckline at $120 on January 30. The measured target from this breakdown indicates a decline to approximately $57, which represents a 32% decrease from current levels. Support levels are being monitored closely, especially given the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) bands, which have historically provided context for potential support. Last week, SOL found support at the lowest MVRV band boundary at $75.
In previous instances, SOL has bounced back from similar levels; for example, in March 2022, the price rebounded from around $75, rising 87% within three weeks to reach $140. However, the market environment is different now, especially following heavy losses resulting from the FTX crash in November 2022, which saw SOL drop to around $7.
Institutional interest in SOL appears to be waning, as evidenced by recent data indicating that Solana ETFs recorded nearly $11.9 million in net outflows, marking the second-largest outflow day on record. This trend of ETF outflows often aligns with late-stage selling during prolonged downtrends, suggesting that stabilization may be on the horizon once selling pressure subsides.
Technical indicators also point to ongoing weakness. Following a brief rebound, selling pressure returned on the weekly chart, preventing buyers from maintaining momentum. A notable spike in trading volume last week led to increased volatility, but volume has since decreased, leaving the price in a narrow range. The weekly Gaussian Channel has flipped to a bearish stance, indicating that SOL may be entrenched in a broader downtrend.
Currently, SOL is trading around $84.51 after a recent bounce from $67. To shift the current bearish setup, bulls would need a robust weekly close above the $115 mark. Failure to reclaim the $105-$110 resistance zone may leave SOL vulnerable to further declines. Analysts suggest that a move toward the $75-$77 range is possible if current support does not hold.
