LONDON, May 15, 2025 – The silver market experienced a significant technical recovery during Thursday”s European trading session as proactive dip-buyers seized the moment ahead of a crucial U.S. employment report that had been delayed. This resurgence in silver prices illustrates the market”s responsiveness to macroeconomic factors and established technical support levels.
Spot silver (XAG/USD) was trading around $28.50 per ounce, representing a recovery of approximately 1.8% from the lows recorded earlier in the week. Market analysts identified a strong support level near $27.80, coinciding with the 50-day moving average and a previous resistance level that had transformed into support in mid-April. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart indicated oversold conditions, dipping close to 30 before making a rebound, a signal typically favored by contrarian buyers. The increase in trading volume during this rebound suggested a genuine accumulation of positions rather than mere short-covering.
Several key chart patterns played a role in this bullish turnaround. A distinct hammer candlestick pattern was observed on the daily chart at the support zone. The price also remained above the critical 200-day simple moving average, sustaining the uptrend established since late 2023. Fibonacci retracement levels indicated that the dip found buying interest at the 61.8% retracement, a common level for trend continuation. Together, these technical indicators created a framework for both algorithmic and discretionary traders looking to capitalize on the rebound.
The backdrop for this market activity was the highly anticipated release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which was delayed due to technical issues. This report serves as a vital barometer for Federal Reserve policy, influencing interest rate projections and, in turn, impacting non-yielding assets such as silver. Historically, stronger labor data tends to bolster the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on precious metals, while disappointing data can lead to expectations of monetary easing, thus supporting silver prices.
Market expectations, based on Bloomberg surveys, had projected job growth around 190,000 for April. However, mixed signals from other labor indicators, such as job openings and weekly unemployment claims, kept uncertainty high. This ambiguity created a tactical opportunity for traders to position themselves ahead of the significant data release, aiming to benefit from the anticipated volatility.
Dr. Anya Sharma, Head of Commodity Strategy at the Global Markets Institute, noted, “This is a classic instance of “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics in commodities. Dip-buyers are not solely betting on a weak jobs number but are looking to exploit the volatility that typically follows such releases. By entering at technical support ahead of the event, they minimize downside risk while positioning for potential price swings.”
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) corroborated this perspective, revealing that managed money accounts had reduced their net-long silver positions in the weeks leading up to the report, thereby creating space for renewed buying. Furthermore, physical demand indicators remained strong, with the Silver Institute”s Q1 2025 report indicating a 5% year-over-year increase in industrial demand, particularly from the solar photovoltaic sector, which provides a fundamental price floor.
The silver bounce occurred amid mixed performance in related assets. In contrast to silver”s robust rebound, gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a more subdued increase, underscoring silver”s higher sensitivity to industrial demand. The gold-silver ratio, a key measure for precious metal traders, tightened slightly from 86 to 85.2, indicating that silver”s movement was partially influenced by its monetary attributes ahead of the jobs report.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable, reflecting a cautious market attitude. Real yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) held steady around 1.85%, which provided a favorable environment for the technical rebound in silver. Increased volatility, as measured by the CBOE”s Silver Volatility Index, also created attractive conditions for options traders.
In conclusion, the rebound in silver prices prior to the U.S. jobs data release highlights the intricate dynamics of modern trading, where technical analysis, macroeconomic foresight, and fundamental factors converge. As traders prepare for the imminent report, the interplay between silver”s role as both a monetary and industrial asset becomes increasingly evident, underscoring the sustained demand that supports long-term market structures.
