The price trajectory of Pi Coin has demonstrated resilience compared to other major cryptocurrencies throughout November. However, recent charts reveal a blend of strength alongside emerging warning signs. November marked a notably calm period for Pi, as the token seeks to turn positive for the third time this year. The pressing question is whether this upward momentum can persist into December, outperform November, or if the prevailing downtrend will once again dominate.
Analyzing Pi Coin”s history reveals a relatively brief yet telling narrative. Throughout 2025, the price has mainly trended downward, with only February and May registering positive monthly performance. November is attempting to join this selective group. A noteworthy aspect is Pi Coin”s negative correlation with Bitcoin, currently measured at approximately -0.24. This indicates that during Bitcoin”s declines, Pi often remains stable or even experiences slight increases. Over the last month, while Bitcoin has seen a significant decline of nearly 19%, Pi has only dropped by about 2.6%.
The weekly performance further corroborates this stability, as Pi Coin has managed to gain around 2.7% in the past week, positioning it as one of the more resilient assets in a struggling market. Despite this, certain indicators on the three-day chart imply that December might prove tougher than November.
The broader market structure of Pi Coin remains within a converging falling wedge, a pattern typically associated with bullish outcomes. Currently, the price is nearing the upper trendline of this wedge. A breakout at this juncture would typically be viewed positively. However, two key indicators suggest early signs of weakness. The first is the relative strength index (RSI) divergence on the three-day chart. Between October 25 and November 24, Pi Coin recorded a lower high, while the RSI marked a higher high. This situation is known as hidden bearish divergence, indicating that the underlying downturn could still be significant despite a seemingly stable price.
The second indicator is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which gauges the influx or outflow of large sums of money in the market. The CMF remains in negative territory on the three-day chart and is currently approaching its ascending trendline. A previous visit to this trendline in early October resulted in a substantial drop exceeding 42%. The combination of these two signals suggests that the strength observed in November may not carry over into December unless there is a notable influx of capital and the CMF manages to avoid a breakdown.
When examining critical price levels for December, the chart presents a straightforward picture. For Pi Coin to gain momentum, a breakthrough above $0.28 is essential, aligning with the upper boundary of the wedge. A decisive close above this level could pave the way for movements towards $0.36, with the potential for even reaching $0.46 if momentum strengthens further. However, the existing indicators imply that such an outcome is less probable unless there is improvement in the CMF.
On the downside, the initial support levels to monitor are at $0.21 and $0.20. A fall below $0.20 could expose the price to the $0.18 range. Should Bitcoin reverse into a bullish trend, Pi”s negative correlation could lead to short-term underperformance, drawing the price closer to the lower boundary of the wedge. The critical level to maintain in December is $0.20; preserving this price point is vital for the long-term structure. Losing this support could lead to the $0.18 level, and potentially even $0.15, coming back into focus.
In summary, while Pi Coin has a chance to finish the year on a stronger note, this outcome hinges on the stabilization of the CMF and whether the falling wedge facilitates a breakthrough above $0.28. There remains potential for Pi Coin to attract interest from larger investors if Bitcoin continues to weaken, further enhancing its appeal as a negative correlation asset.
