The sentiment among users on the Myriad prediction market has shifted dramatically, with many now optimistic about the future of digital assets. As of Tuesday, traders on Myriad, which is owned by Dastan, have reduced their forecast for a crypto winter to just 9%, a significant decline from the 30% forecast recorded last week.
This positive shift coincides with a notable rebound in cryptocurrency prices following a prolonged downturn that lasted over six weeks. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading above $91,500, reflecting a 6% increase in the past 24 hours. Despite this uptick, BTC remains approximately 27% lower than its record high of over $126,000 set in early October, as per the data from CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) was priced at $2,990, marking a 7.3% rise since the previous day. The Ethereum development community is set to unveil the Fusaka upgrade on Wednesday, which promises to significantly alter the way the mainnet manages and verifies data from layer-2 networks. However, ETH has experienced a decline of more than 20% over the past month.
For the prediction market to consider a crypto winter likely, three out of four criteria must be met: Bitcoin must fall to $35,000; Ethereum should drop to $1,000; shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) need to decrease to $50; or the total cryptocurrency market capitalization on TradingView must fall to $350 billion. A “crypto winter” is typically defined as an extended period of declining market conditions, characterized by reduced trading activity and waning investor interest.
The last major crypto winter spanned from late 2021 to much of 2023, triggered by the collapse of the pandemic-era bull market, which was exacerbated by events such as the Terra/Luna crash in 2022 and the subsequent failures of major entities like Three Arrows Capital and FTX. During this challenging time, Bitcoin plummeted from an all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021 to around $16,000 following the FTX collapse, representing a staggering decline of approximately 75%. This period also saw a drastic reduction in venture capital funding and trading volumes.
Despite the current bullish outlook on Myriad, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still facing challenges. Analysts from QCP Capital attribute the recent price dip to hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a potential increase in interest rates at the upcoming BOJ meeting. Additionally, traders are closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Open Markets Committee”s decisions, as the outcomes of their final meeting for the year could heavily influence Bitcoin”s performance heading into the new year.
