The recent launch of Monad“s mainnet on November 24 has been marked by a significant price drop, with MON trading at $0.024, representing a 15% decline from its pre-market levels. This initial performance has sparked discussions among analysts regarding the weak demand observed during its initial coin offering (ICO) and the dynamics of its airdrop.
During the token generation event (TGE), approximately 10% of a total supply of 100 billion tokens was unlocked and distributed. Analysts pointed out that Monad“s price fell from a pre-market trading range of $0.032 to $0.034, as reported by sources like CoinMarketCap and Bitget. This translates to an effective loss of 15% as trading began.
Prior to the public listings, investors had an opportunity to participate in Coinbase“s inaugural launchpad ICO, which priced MON at $0.025. This fundraising round was notably significant, raising $187.5 million from November 17 to November 22, selling 7.5 billion MON tokens to participants who underwent a know-your-customer (KYC) process. In contrast, an undisclosed private fundraising round led by Paradigm on April 9, 2024, reportedly raised $225 million, although the specific token allocation remains unclear.
As of now, Monad holds a market cap of $264 million, leading to theoretical unrealized gains of 17.33% for investors from the initial fundraising based solely on market capitalization metrics.
Reactions from analysts regarding the launch have varied considerably. A pseudonymous analyst, known as Red Hair Shanks, expressed skepticism, highlighting that the ICO results imply a lack of interest, stating, “EVERYONE who wanted to buy Monad could have done it at a $2.5 billion fully diluted value.” This sentiment reflects a broader concern regarding the demand for MON, which currently sits at a fully diluted valuation of $2.43 billion, lower than the ICO valuation.
Another commentator, Hantengri, pointed out an unusual situation where investors who participated in the ICO, which required KYC verification, are now at a disadvantage compared to new buyers who can access MON at a lower price without such processes. This dynamic has raised questions about the effectiveness and fairness of the ICO.
Concerns regarding the airdrop dynamics have also emerged, with many analysts suggesting that recipients of free tokens may be incentivized to sell, thereby increasing supply pressure and affecting price performance. For instance, Jeremy, co-founder of Glyde, shared his experience of swapping 4,156 MON for $124 worth of USDC shortly after launch. Additionally, another co-founder reported opening a short position on MON that was already profiting significantly by the time of the posting.
Despite the rocky start, Monad“s journey is just beginning. The platform is actively pursuing integrations with major blockchains like Solana and NEAR, aiming to broaden its ecosystem, which currently includes 224 projects. Monad is positioned as an EVM-compatible layer-one blockchain, boasting a high-performance capability of up to 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), while currently operating around 100 TPS, according to the Monad Vision explorer.
As the market continues to react, the implications of Monad“s launch will unfold, presenting both challenges and opportunities for current and potential investors.
