Future Market Insights (FMI) has forecasted significant expansion in the global gemstone market, predicting it will grow from $38.4 billion in 2026 to $72.8 billion by 2036. This growth reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% over the next decade. Notably, the market dynamics are set to shift, creating a widening gap between premium natural gemstones and commoditized synthetic alternatives.
The United States is anticipated to remain a central hub for gemstone demand, with U.S. consumption imports valued at approximately $25 billion in 2023, as reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. This trend underscores the market”s reliance on quality and verified origin, shifting the focus from merely expanding capacity to enhancing transparency and traceability within the supply chain.
Importance of Provenance and Verification
According to FMI, the gemstone sector is transitioning towards a data-centric framework where traceability is essential for market entry. This shift implies that stones lacking verified origins may face significant discounts or exclusion from premium markets, whereas those with verified supply chains will benefit from increased pricing power. Tools for detection and provenance, such as De Beers” DiamondProof and Gübelin”s traceability initiatives, are becoming crucial for maintaining standards in premium retail.
Market Dynamics and Supply Chain Adjustments
Current challenges in the market include excess inventory and fluctuating end-demand, which are prompting procurement teams to rethink their strategies regarding contracts and inventory management. Al Cook, CEO of De Beers Group, noted the ongoing difficulties in rough diamond trading conditions, which continue to be affected by high inventory levels and declining demand, particularly in China. As such, operators will likely need to align production guidance with real-time demand metrics to stabilize pricing structures.
Emeralds and Jewelry Drive Market Value
Emeralds are identified as the leading product type, holding a 32.0% market share, thanks to their distinct visual appeal and rarity. The jewelry and ornaments application segment dominates the market, accounting for 78.0% of total value. This emphasizes gemstones” lasting significance in bridal purchases and luxury consumption.
Looking forward, the FMI report anticipates that lab-grown diamonds will increasingly dominate mass-market jewelry by 2036, creating a clearer distinction between fashion-oriented purchases and investment-grade acquisitions. This trend will push natural gemstone players towards positioning themselves in the hyper-luxury segment, relying on verified ethical sourcing to justify higher premiums.
As sustainability becomes a critical factor in supplier selection, manufacturers will need to demonstrate their environmental credentials more rigorously. This evolving landscape suggests that the long-term viability of mining operations will hinge on their ability to deliver exceptional quality and uphold stringent provenance verification.
In summary, the gemstone market is on the cusp of transformation, characterized by a clear demand for transparency, quality, and ethical sourcing, which will shape the competitive landscape in the years to come.
