Cryptocurrency analysts are closely monitoring the latest Federal Reserve meeting, yet according to Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, the anticipated 25 basis points rate cut is no longer the primary focus. Instead, the emphasis now lies on Fed Chair Jerome Powell”s tone and guidance regarding future monetary policy.
Barthere noted that the markets have already factored in the rate cut, highlighting that Powell”s communication and the upcoming leadership transition in 2026 could significantly impact digital asset markets. She pointed out that the delayed announcement of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, expected in early 2026, might provide a bullish sentiment for cryptocurrencies.
“The Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach,” Barthere stated, indicating that policymakers will likely emphasize a data-driven trajectory due to the two-month lag in labor market data. She also mentioned that the terminal rate is expected to hover around 3.0%, reflecting the divided opinions within the committee.
As Bitcoin approaches a critical resistance level near $91,000, Barthere anticipates it will remain around this threshold following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The convergence of the 20-day exponential moving average and a longstanding downtrend line at this level represents a significant challenge for the leading cryptocurrency.
Recent data from Polymarket indicates a 94% probability that the Fed will proceed with the rate cut, which would mark the third reduction in a row. This shift is occurring in a challenging economic landscape characterized by rising layoffs and inflationary pressures linked to past tariff policies.
Bitcoin”s ascent above $92,000 has sparked renewed enthusiasm among market participants, with some analysts believing that the upcoming Fed meeting could trigger a substantial market rally. The London Crypto Club has suggested that a liquidity injection from the Fed could serve as a catalyst for a sharp increase in Bitcoin”s value.
In their latest analysis, researchers David Brickell and Chris Mills predicted that the central bank may unveil a “dovish surprise” by employing a creative bond-buying mechanism rather than traditional quantitative easing methods. They emphasized that a continuation of rate cuts coupled with balance sheet expansion could effectively stimulate the market.
On the technical side, a key on-chain metric known as “liveliness” is on the rise, indicating a potential increase in demand despite Bitcoin”s relatively stable price action. This trend suggests that dormant coins are being reactivated at levels not seen in years, signifying that long-term holders may be returning to the market.
Furthermore, Bitfinex recently noted signs of “seller exhaustion” in the market, following a period of aggressive liquidations and panic selling by short-term investors. This trend, combined with the anticipated Fed actions, could set the stage for a more bullish outlook for cryptocurrencies in the near future.
