Ethereum is once again trying to breach the significant $3,000 threshold, but progress has stalled. After a brief surge, ETH has reverted to this support level, indicating a divided market. Although there are signs of returning bullish momentum, the impatience of investors could hinder recovery without a clear market direction in the near future.
The MVRV Long/Short Difference is approaching the neutral line, hinting at a possible change in profit dynamics between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). This metric assesses whether LTHs or STHs are realizing greater profits. For Ethereum, a drop below the neutral line indicates that STHs are sitting on the majority of unrealized gains. This shift is crucial as STHs typically sell quickly at the first hint of weakness. Should they start taking profits around the $3,000 mark, renewed selling pressure could emerge. Such actions have historically stalled recovery attempts, leaving market sentiment fragile despite more favorable broader indicators.
The squeeze momentum indicator adds further complexity to the current situation. At present, ETH is undergoing a squeeze build-up, which occurs when volatility decreases, leading to compressed momentum. This pattern typically predicts a significant directional move. The histogram suggests that bullish momentum is gaining strength, indicating that once the squeeze is released, price acceleration may follow. If bullish momentum continues to build during this phase, ETH could experience a volatile upward movement. This scenario has preceded rallies in past cycles, but confirmation is contingent upon market engagement and whether buyers enter the market at $3,000.
Currently, ETH is trading at $3,045 and remains just above the critical $3,000 support level. In recent days, ETH has hovered closely around this area, reflecting indecision among traders as market cues shift. The conflicting indicators imply that ETH may continue to trade sideways near the $3,000 mark in the short term. A breakdown triggered by STH profit-taking or broader market skepticism could push Ethereum down to $2,762 before finding a stable footing. Conversely, if bullish momentum persists alongside favorable macroeconomic conditions, ETH could surpass $3,131 and aim for $3,287. A decisive move above these levels would invalidate bearish expectations and pave the way for a more extensive recovery phase.
