A trader on Polymarket, known as ricosuave666, has made a notable return after a seven-month absence, placing bets on the likelihood of an Israeli military strike against Iran. This resurgence has sparked discussions within the market regarding whether this activity indicates insider knowledge or is merely coincidental.
Ricosuave666 has invested a total of $8,198 in these bets, with the profile indicating a significant profit of $155,699.12. Each previous wager concerning Israel has proven to be successful. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain has highlighted this trader”s recent activities, pointing out that the bets are focused on potential Israeli strikes occurring by January 31 and March 31, 2026.
According to Lookonchain, “Notably, when ricosuave666 joined Polymarket 7 months ago, every bet he placed on Israel-related news was profitable. Is he an insider? Now he”s betting on Israel-related news again — will another strike happen?” As of now, Polymarket”s data suggests a 38% chance of an Israeli military action by late January, which increases to 54% by the end of March.
This trader”s bets come at a time of heightened tensions throughout the Middle East. Recent reports indicate that the Iranian rial has sharply depreciated against the US dollar, resulting in widespread protests that began in late December. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for these demonstrations, which have gained traction across Iran. In contrast, Iranian officials have accused Israel of attempting to destabilize their national unity.
Additionally, Iran has issued warnings regarding potential preemptive military strikes should they perceive a tangible threat to their security. The National Defense Council of Iran has stated that the country”s longstanding adversaries are intensifying their threats, which they claim conflicts with international law.
While the implications of ricosuave666″s betting activity are under scrutiny, it remains unclear whether these wagers stem from strategic foresight or are simply a byproduct of the current geopolitical landscape. The timing has undoubtedly attracted attention, but as of now, there is no solid evidence to indicate that insider trading is at play. This situation mirrors a recent incident in Venezuela, where three wallets made substantial profits by betting on the imminent arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, raising similar concerns regarding the timing of those trades.
