BNB has reached a significant undervaluation, trading 37% below its short-term holder realized price, a threshold that historically indicates potential for sharp price recoveries. As of now, BNB is priced between $628 and $629, approximately 55% below its peak of nearly $1,400 from October 2025. This decline represents an extraordinary 89% drop from its all-time high, sparking discussions among analysts regarding the asset”s next moves.
Technical indicators reveal a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35.62, nearing oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is shrinking, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the current downward trend. Analysts are particularly focused on the $587 weekly support level as a critical marker to monitor.
On-chain analysis from OnChainMind highlights that BNB”s current price is about 37% below its short-term holder realized price equivalent, a figure that has historically signaled substantial undervaluation. Previous cycles indicate that BNB tends to reprice sharply when it approaches this level, presenting a possible opportunity for traders.
Despite ongoing criticism of Binance, BNB has demonstrated resilience, performing better than many other altcoins over its lifespan. The asset”s valuation is supported by factors such as fee discounts, periodic token burns, and ongoing demand from the Binance ecosystem, which remains strong even amid price corrections.
Examining the charts, BNB”s recent performance tells a story of substantial correction nearing what could be a pivotal turning point. After bottoming out in the $550 to $580 range in early February 2026, BNB has managed a modest recovery. Nonetheless, the overall market structure continues to favor bearish sentiment until a confirmed reversal can be established.
Analyst Zach Humphries has identified $587 as a crucial horizontal support level on the weekly chart. A successful defense of this support could lead to a double bottom formation, setting the stage for a potential retest of the $800 range. The importance of the weekly candle close cannot be overstated, as it will either affirm this bullish scenario or suggest a shift in momentum.
Should BNB lose the $587 support, the outlook could change dramatically. The analyst noted a thin air pocket below this level, with limited support before reaching the $496 zone, indicating a possible rapid decline if current levels are breached.
As the market approaches this decisive point, two potential paths emerge for BNB”s future. The bullish case hinges on the $587 support holding firm, allowing buyers to capitalize on the asset”s undervaluation. A recovery towards the $700 to $750 range would be the initial test of the rebound”s strength, while a break above that resistance could shift focus to the $800 target.
Conversely, the bearish scenario remains valid. A failure to maintain current support without a strong weekly close above $587 would expose BNB to the risk of a deeper correction. The market”s cautious positioning reflects the uncertainty surrounding the asset as traders await clarity on its future trajectory.
