Bitcoin has once again fallen below the $90,000 mark, coinciding with gold achieving a record high of over $4,755 per ounce. This decline occurs amidst escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. In a recent analysis, Michaël van de Poppe, CIO at MN Capital, highlighted that Bitcoin”s valuation against gold has hit a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 30, a significant threshold previously observed during previous bear market lows in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
The current situation marks the fourth instance in history where the gold-Bitcoin RSI has reached this level. Van de Poppe remarked, “History shows that Bitcoin is extremely undervalued today relative to gold. It”s wise to buy,” emphasizing the critical need for Bitcoin to initiate a catch-up rally given gold”s rapid ascent.
Investor Ansem has noted that Bitcoin”s recent underperformance relative to gold stems from long-term holders with acquisition costs below $100,000 liquidating their positions, particularly in alignment with the four-year cycle peak timing. Ansem anticipates that capitulation will conclude by 2026, suggesting that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a significant rally as investors reallocate their portfolios.
According to Ansem, “BTC as a digital analog to gold is easier to transport across borders, easier to transact with, and overall just a better asset in a heavily digital world.” He believes this positions Bitcoin favorably in the current market landscape.
The daily chart for Bitcoin indicates a consolidation phase following a sharp correction. The market structure appears to be gradually improving, provided that the support levels hold firm. Currently, Bitcoin is showing higher lows from the December bottom, riding an ascending trendline that signals increasing demand and a controlled recovery, rather than a frantic rebound.
A recent pullback from the $95,000 to $97,000 range has occurred below well-defined resistance levels around $100,000 to $101,000, indicating that sellers remain active at these elevated prices.
The crucial support zone lies between $88,000 and $90,000, aligning with the rising trendline and previous consolidation phases. This region is vital for bulls to defend; if Bitcoin maintains its position above this area, the broader market structure will stay intact and favor upward movement. Conversely, a sustained drop below this level could lead to deeper retracement toward the low $80,000s.
With the RSI hovering in the mid-40s, the market reflects neutral momentum, reinforcing the idea that it is currently in a reset phase rather than being overextended. Should Bitcoin continue to respect the $88,000 to $90,000 support, it may attempt to retest the $100,000 to $101,000 resistance level. A decisive break above this threshold would bolster the bullish narrative and potentially pave the way toward a range between $105,000 and $110,000.
From a technical perspective, it is essential for Bitcoin to remain above the last cycle”s peak of approximately $69,000, established in 2021, to preserve a bullish outlook. Ansem noted, “If we breach there, with Saylor”s cost average currently approximately $75,000, trading beneath would signal full-scale capitulation and present a generational buying opportunity.”
In terms of market dynamics, the absence of a new all-time high in 2026 could challenge this bullish scenario, suggesting that capital inflow into gold may not be reflecting in Bitcoin, despite Bitcoin”s market cap of about $2 trillion compared to gold”s approximate $32 trillion valuation.
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