Recent data from prediction markets indicates that traders are becoming more optimistic about the short-term price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, even as the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains deeply pessimistic.
Despite some price increases earlier this week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to signal “Extreme Fear.” This index assesses investor emotions and market sentiment through various data points, including social media activity and volatility metrics.
According to Myriad”s prediction market, which is managed by Dastan, there has been a notable shift of over 20% in favor of a potential price surge for Bitcoin to $84,000 before possibly retreating to $55,000. This speculation follows Bitcoin“s rise from below $63,000 earlier in the week to a peak of over $69,000.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is priced at $67,137. However, traders are still anticipating a significant pullback, assigning a probability of approximately 56% to the idea of a drop to $55,000.
Similarly, Ethereum has experienced a price increase from around $1,815 to more than $2,100, marking a gain of over 15%. The Myriad market also reflects this optimism, with a favoring shift towards a price target of $3,000 and a reduced likelihood of a drop below $1,500, now estimated at 62.5%.
Ethereum is currently valued at $2,023. Despite these positive price movements, the Fear & Greed Index has remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone for most of February, reflecting a disconnect between prediction market optimism and prevailing market sentiment.
Other prediction platforms, like Kalshi, show a decrease in the odds of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 this year, now at 66%, which is a 10% decrease from the previous week. Likewise, the likelihood of Ethereum dropping below $1,500 has also seen a similar 10% decline, now standing at 63%.
Despite the recent optimism among traders, expert analyses advise caution. Reports from CryptoQuant suggest that Bitcoin may find a bear-market bottom around $55,000. Additionally, Standard Chartered has projected that Ethereum could drop to $1,400 and Bitcoin to $50,000 prior to any substantial recovery.
Although there is a slight increase in bullish sentiment, traders do not foresee new all-time highs for either Bitcoin or Ethereum in the near future. On Polymarket, the chances of both cryptocurrencies reaching their previous all-time highs by the end of 2026 sit at just 19%.
