Aster Coin experienced a significant decline of nearly 14% within a 24-hour period, with prices dropping to the range of $0.78 to $0.80. This downturn follows the breach of a long-standing support level, compounded by a surge in trading volume that increased over 200%, reaching approximately $533 million. This placed Aster among the largest losers of the day, coinciding with a broader deterioration in market sentiment.
The primary catalyst for this sell-off appears to be the release of Stage 3 airdrop unlocks, which entered the market without any vesting period. On-chain analytics reveal considerable distribution from major holders, including a notable whale who offloaded around 13.44 million ASTER, valued at about $13 million, directly to Binance. This influx of supply overwhelmed the bid-side liquidity, resulting in accelerated losses as the price fell below the $0.91 mark, a psychological support level that had been in place since September.
Worsening macroeconomic conditions further exacerbated the situation. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 24, while Bitcoin approached $86,000 on December 15, leading traders to exit from higher-risk altcoins. Consequently, news surrounding Aster Coin”s unlocks and associated leverage risks contributed to a broader risk-off sentiment within the market.
Interestingly, this selling pressure emerged despite robust platform activity. Aster ranked first among perpetual exchanges, achieving $6.56 billion in trading volume over the last 24 hours, surpassing competitors like Lighter and Hyperliquid. The development team has also been proactive in supporting the token, having repurchased 29.3 million ASTER last week using 28 million USDT at an average price close to $0.95. To date, cumulative buybacks have exceeded $214 million, which has effectively removed more than 7% of the circulating supply from the market. However, market participants seem to prioritize the immediate dilution risk over the potential long-term benefits of this supply reduction.
Looking at the short-term price outlook for Aster Coin, technical indicators suggest a decisively bearish trend. The token is currently trading below all significant daily moving averages, with TradingView signals indicating a “strong sell” across both oscillators and exponential moving averages (EMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the low-30s, reflecting ongoing downside momentum without any clear bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and other momentum indicators remain negative.
Analyst Ardi has pointed out that Aster Coin has reached its downside target near $0.81, now testing a major macro low on the chart. His analysis suggests that if the price fails to establish a double bottom, it may open the door to a decline toward the ~$0.73 region, which represents the next significant downside level. In practical terms, the future price trajectory of Aster Coin hinges on two critical levels: a move above $0.85 could indicate stabilization and absorption of the selling pressure related to the unlocks, while sustained trading below $0.78 could keep downside risks toward $0.73 firmly in play.
