As the cryptocurrency market starts to recover, analysts are pointing towards the possibility of an altcoin season emerging in March. Despite a fragile recovery observed in February, certain indicators have sparked optimism among investors.
Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals that only approximately 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This statistic highlights that a staggering 95% of altcoins remain below this critical threshold, showcasing their weak performance in the market.
However, historical trends provide a sliver of hope. Over the last two years, this percentage has typically remained below 15% for up to five months before experiencing a rebound. This trend was evident from June to October 2024 and again from February to June 2025. The current decline began in October of the previous year and has reached its fifth month, potentially signaling that many altcoins are at attractive price levels for investors.
On another front, analysts have noted positive signals emerging from the OTHERS/BTC chart, which tracks the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin against BTC. Analyst Blade observed potential reversal signs on this chart during February, indicating a shift in momentum. The MACD indicator has crossed above the signal line, and the first green histogram bar has formed since early 2024. Such signals have historically preceded significant altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020, further fueling expectations for a potential altseason.
Despite these positive indicators, it”s crucial to acknowledge that investor sentiment remains cautious. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the ratio of altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. This ratio peaked at approximately 3.5 in 2025 but has been steadily declining, hovering around 2.2 recently. This trend illustrates a continued preference for Bitcoin among investors, which leaves altcoins relatively overlooked on centralized platforms.
Currently, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43, significantly below the 75-point threshold necessary to confirm an altseason. Additionally, a report from BeInCrypto indicates that the altcoin market has endured 13 consecutive months of net selling. Even if an altcoin season does materialize, it is likely to be selective, driven by strong fundamentals rather than a broad market surge.
