A substantial amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options, totaling $6.42 billion, is set to expire tomorrow, December 12, 2025, across three major exchanges: Deribit, Binance, and OKX. This event could have notable implications for short-term price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
Among these exchanges, Deribit dominates with an impressive $4.67 billion in options. In contrast, Binance contributes approximately $107 million, likely from retail traders, while OKX accounts for around $649 million, primarily from larger institutional participants.
As the expiration date approaches, the market may witness prices gravitating towards levels where traders experience the least financial pain, commonly referred to as the “max pain” point. Currently, this max pain point is estimated at $90,000 to $92,000 for BTC and $3,100 to $3,200 for ETH.
Analyzing the put/call ratio reveals a cautious sentiment among traders, with the ratio exceeding 1. This indicates that traders are purchasing more protective options but are not heavily betting on significant price movements.
Deribit is particularly influential in this scenario, holding $3.57 billion in BTC options set to expire. The current put/call ratio stands at 1.09, reflecting trader caution, matching the max pain of $90,000 amidst a recently stable market.
For Ethereum, approximately $746.43 million in options are set to expire, with a put/call ratio of 1.24, indicating even greater caution compared to BTC. The max pain point for ETH is placed at $3,100, with numerous bets positioned above $3,400, hinting at traders” anticipation of potential significant movement depending on upcoming news.
The impact of Binance cannot be overlooked, as it adds $73.94 million in BTC and $34.40 million in ETH options. The put/call ratios suggest a max pain level of $91,000 for BTC and $3,150 for ETH. Despite its smaller size, Binance“s trading activity can lead to rapid market reactions post-expiration.
OKX also plays a crucial role, contributing around $410.93 million in BTC options and $232.29 million in ETH options. The traders here display a tendency towards protective strategies, evident from the put/call ratios and the max pain levels of $92,000 for BTC and $3,200 for ETH. The strategic positioning of traders on OKX, often involving perpetual futures, can significantly impact market liquidity.
In summary, as more than $6.4 billion in BTC and ETH options approach their expiration tomorrow, the market braces for one of the year”s most significant events. Traders are currently adopting a cautious stance, clustering around critical price levels, which aligns with recent analysis suggesting that the anticipated market rally may not materialize, with Bitcoin potentially slipping below $84,000.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at $90,042.65, reflecting a decrease of 2.1% according to CoinGecko.
