Tesla stock surged by 3% to reach $451.05 on January 6, driven by a boost from President Donald Trump, who lauded CEO Elon Musk as a “great innovator” and highlighted Tesla as a hallmark of American technological prowess. This political endorsement seems aimed at solidifying Trump”s connections with the tech industry ahead of the 2026 elections.
However, the timing is critical for Tesla, as the company reported a significant shortfall in vehicle deliveries. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles, a 16% decline year-over-year, falling short of analysts” expectations of 422,850 units. This marks the second consecutive year of decreased deliveries, with total vehicles delivered in 2025 reaching 1.64 million, missing the company”s ambitious target of 2 million.
The decline in deliveries coincides with the phase-out of EV tax incentives in major markets and intensified competition from both Chinese and European manufacturers, putting Tesla”s market position under strain.
Despite these setbacks, investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald has maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla, setting a price target of $510, which implies a potential upside of 16% from current levels. Analysts pointed to several key developments anticipated in 2026 that could serve as catalysts for growth, including the rollout of Full Self-Driving technology in China and Europe, the expansion of the robotaxi initiative, and the launch of the Cybercab.
In addition to challenges in vehicle deliveries, Tesla”s Optimus humanoid robot project faces delays. Reports indicate that the robots are still being assembled manually and currently lack the fine-motor skills necessary for commercial applications. This raises concerns about the feasibility of Musk”s vision for the robots as a cornerstone of Tesla”s future valuation, as earlier expectations for widespread deployment by 2026 seem increasingly unrealistic.
On a more positive note, Tesla”s energy storage segment has shown exceptional growth, deploying a record 46.7 GWh of storage products for the entire year of 2025, up from 31.4 GWh in 2024. In the fourth quarter alone, 14.2 GWh were deployed, surpassing estimates and contributing positively to the company”s performance amidst declining vehicle profit margins.
Technical analysis reveals mixed signals for Tesla”s stock. Support is noted around $430, aligning with a rising trendline from the lows observed in October 2025. A breach below this level could send shares toward the $400-$410 range. The relative strength index is close to 60, indicating potential for further upward movement, though trading volume remains low, suggesting the current rally may be more of a reaction than a sign of strong investor conviction.
Resistance levels are identified near $475, which previously capped gains in mid-December. A breakthrough at this point would necessitate substantial operational advancements or renewed momentum from Tesla”s AI initiatives.
Tesla is scheduled to release its Q4 2025 earnings report after the market closes on January 28. Despite the recent challenges, the stock has appreciated by 38.92% over the last six months, although production figures declined from 459,445 vehicles in Q4 2024 to 434,358 in Q4 2025.
