The cryptocurrency investment firm Cryptogram Venture (CGV) has released a comprehensive report detailing the anticipated evolution of prediction markets by 2026. The findings suggest that these markets will transition from mere trading platforms to critical infrastructure supporting decision-making processes through enhanced integration with artificial intelligence (AI).
CGV”s report, which is the result of two years of extensive research into the dynamics of prediction markets, AI agents, and regulatory frameworks, outlines 26 significant projections for the future landscape. One of the key assertions is that prediction markets will move away from being categorized as “gambling” or “derivatives.” Instead, they will be recognized as decentralized systems that facilitate information aggregation and pricing.
As of 2025, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reported combined trading volumes exceeding $27 billion. Their data has increasingly been cited by mainstream media and academia as real-time consensus indicators, showcasing forecasting accuracy that surpasses traditional polling methods. The report anticipates that as institutional investment grows and regulatory frameworks become clearer, these markets will gain acceptance as legitimate decentralized pricing mechanisms.
The intrinsic value of prediction markets lies in their capacity to generate early signals rather than merely achieving accuracy. In 2025, shifts in probabilities on major platforms successfully anticipated key decisions by the Federal Reserve and other significant events by one to two weeks in advance. By 2026, there is an expectation that the demand from institutions for hedging via probability signals will lead to the integration of these markets” data into financial terminals, solidifying their role as real-time consensus indicators.
Moreover, the focus of prediction markets is projected to expand from individual events to encompass broader “state-level” outcomes, such as economic conditions and asset price ranges. This shift will promote long-cycle state markets that dominate liquidity and provide continuous pricing of global conditions.
AI systems are expected to increasingly leverage prediction markets as an external layer for reality validation. By incorporating capital-weighted probabilities, the forecasting accuracy is anticipated to improve, reducing instances of AI hallucinations and creating a feedback loop that connects real-world events, market data, and AI models.
In terms of product evolution, the report forecasts that single-event markets will mature, leading to innovations focused on structural enhancements like efficient liquidity and profit distribution models. Multi-event portfolio markets are projected to emerge as the dominant format, allowing for joint pricing of correlated outcomes across various domains such as sports and macroeconomic events. This transition will be supported by increased regulatory clarity and institutional capital, which will further enhance liquidity.
As prediction markets continue to gain traction, enterprise applications are expected to outpace retail usage for the first time. Institutions will increasingly rely on consensus pricing for various applications, including supply chain analytics and project management. Markets that do not rely on native tokens or speculative models are anticipated to outperform, bolstering their long-term sustainability and trust among institutional players.
The integration of AI into prediction markets is likely to redefine market dynamics. AI agents are expected to play an integral role, not primarily as short-term speculators but as continuous market participants that engage in calibration. By late 2025, platforms such as RSS3 MCP Server and Olas Predict allowed AI agents to autonomously gather data, enhancing market efficiency. By 2026, it is projected that AI will account for over 30% of trading volume, primarily acting as persistent liquidity providers.
The report emphasizes that the future of prediction markets will extend beyond generating trading fees; data licensing and signal subscriptions are expected to constitute more than half of total revenues by 2026. This shift will drive the valuation of these markets from trading volume to the value of data assets, with signal APIs becoming integral products across various sectors, including finance and risk management.
In conclusion, CGV”s analysis indicates that prediction markets are on the verge of becoming essential decision-support infrastructures, deeply embedded within the frameworks of AI, finance, and broader decision-making processes. As regulatory scrutiny shifts towards the application and usage of these markets, their role is set to evolve, positioning them as indispensable tools for enterprises and institutions alike.
