Prediction markets have emerged as a significant trend in 2025, transforming from a niche concept to a booming sector within the cryptocurrency landscape. Companies in this space have achieved remarkable valuations, with notable players like Polymarket and Kalshi securing substantial investments. Polymarket recently attracted a $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange, valuing the platform at $9 billion, while Kalshi raised $300 million at a valuation of $5 billion. Other platforms such as Opinion, Limitless, and Myriad are also experiencing user growth, indicating a robust interest in prediction markets.
The key question now is whether these blockchain-based platforms can tap into a new wave of users, potentially introducing blockchain technology to the next billion individuals—an aspirational goal for many in the crypto community.
Although platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket may seem new to those unfamiliar with the crypto ecosystem, prediction markets have been part of the landscape for years. Early players such as Augur and Gnosis laid the groundwork with their token offerings, with Augur raising $5.5 million in 2015 and Gnosis raising $12.5 million in 2017. Augur has continued to develop, with its v2 launch integrating the DAI stablecoin, while Gnosis has shifted its focus to the lucrative Safe multisig wallet, which received $100 million in funding in 2022.
In 2020, Kalshi made headlines by obtaining approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a Designated Contract Market, allowing it to facilitate trading on event contracts. While Kalshi operates within a closed system rather than utilizing blockchain, its regulatory approval has paved the way for the growth of on-chain prediction markets. In contrast, Polymarket, established in 2020, leverages USDC on the Polygon network, marking it as the first significant on-chain prediction market.
The rapid growth of this market is underscored by data showing that the total notional volume traded on prediction markets hit a record high of $3.3 billion in early November, with Kalshi and Polymarket each accounting for roughly $1 billion. The newly launched BNB Chain-based Opinion led with $1.4 billion. This increasing volume highlights the potential for these platforms to democratize access to financial predictions, enabling everyday investors to wager on events ranging from monetary policy changes to political outcomes.
Innovative categories within the prediction market space are also emerging, including “mention markets,” which allow users to place bets on statements made by celebrities or public figures. For instance, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong”s recent remarks during a company earnings call generated considerable buzz, illustrating the intersection of popular culture and prediction markets.
Looking ahead, the challenge remains to attract users who may be unaware of their engagement with cryptocurrency. As noted by Vincent Manglietto, founder of Pentagon Pizza Watch, platforms like Polymarket are effectively branding themselves without overt crypto identifiers. This strategy could facilitate broader adoption by making the underlying technology less visible to users.
While current blockchain-based prediction markets are cultivating hundreds of thousands of users weekly—274,000 in the past week alone, according to Dune Analytics—it is clear that the market is in its nascent stages. However, as the number of available markets increases, this could mirror the introduction of new tokens that generate interest and draw users into the blockchain space. With technological advancements improving the infrastructure, it is conceivable that users may interact with these markets without needing to understand the underlying cryptocurrency mechanics.
As Brian Armstrong aptly stated, “In 10 years, many more people will use crypto, but they may not know they”re using crypto.” The potential for prediction markets to serve as a gateway to mainstream blockchain adoption is significant, heralding an exciting chapter for the cryptocurrency industry.
