In a recent equity research report, analysts at JPMorgan have kept a “neutral” rating on the crypto exchange Bullish (BLSH) while revising their price target for December 2026 to $45, down from the previous $46. This adjustment comes after Bullish reported third-quarter results that exceeded revenue and EBITDA expectations.
The new price target signifies a potential upside of approximately 23.3% from Bullish”s Thursday closing price of $36.50, as noted by The Block”s data dashboard. The analysts explained their decision to reduce the price target stems from a refined approach to account for interest income derived from stablecoin holdings, particularly in light of the company”s $1.2 billion IPO proceeds.
For the third quarter, Bullish posted adjusted diluted earnings-per-share of $0.10, which aligns with Bloomberg”s consensus forecast. The exchange”s revenue reached $77 million, surpassing the anticipated $74 million both in consensus and JPMorgan”s estimates. Moreover, the adjusted EBITDA stood at $29 million, exceeding the expected $26 million.
JPMorgan highlighted that the robust results were propelled by a notable increase in subscription services and other (SS&O) revenue, which amounted to $50 million. This figure marked a significant rise from $12 million in the previous year and exceeded JPMorgan”s forecast of $47 million, despite a “seasonally weaker” event schedule.
However, the analysts decided to revise their earnings estimates downwards. They excluded high-margin stablecoin promotional income linked to the IPO proceeds from their core earnings model and valuation. It is estimated that about $6.2 million of the SS&O revenue for the quarter was generated from promotion payments related to the $1.2 billion of IPO proceeds held in stablecoins. If this one-time revenue item, which boasts a margin close to 100%, were excluded, the adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter would have been approximately $22.4 million.
Additionally, JPMorgan lowered its adjusted EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, revising the figures to $0.31 from $0.44 and $0.93 from $1.29, respectively. This adjustment primarily reflects the removal of anticipated investment income from the IPO proceeds for both years.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan anticipates that Bullish will generate around $12 million in stablecoin promotional revenue during the fourth quarter from the IPO cash, translating to an annualized projection of about $37 million in 2027. Despite these forecast reductions, analysts believe that the fourth-quarter trends appear promising, indicating a “much more constructive” trading environment for Bullish relative to the third quarter.
JPMorgan pointed out that even with declining market caps, increased volatility is driving trading volumes. Observations indicate a 46% quarter-over-quarter rise in bitcoin volatility and a 12% increase in ethereum volatility for the month of October. Furthermore, the earlier-than-anticipated launch of options trading and ongoing U.S. institutional onboarding post the October issuance of a New York BitLicense were also noted as positive developments.
This report underscores JPMorgan”s cautious optimism regarding Bullish”s future prospects, balancing the exchange”s solid performance against the backdrop of a volatile market environment.
