On-chain analyst Willy Woo has raised concerns about a potential “bull trap” for Bitcoin, indicating that the cryptocurrency”s recent climb toward $74,000 could be misleading. According to Woo, this situation is set to persist until the end of April before the overall downward trend resumes.
Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop of 46.82% from its previous all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. Woo asserts that the cryptocurrency is currently in the middle of a bear market, a sentiment supported by liquidity trends rather than mere price movements.
Supporting evidence from data analytics firms Santiment and CryptoQuant reinforces Woo”s bearish stance. Despite retail investors purchasing Bitcoin below $70,000, whale investors continue to sell, which often indicates further price corrections ahead.
The sharp decline from $126,000 to the current levels has left many traders anxious for a rebound, regardless of its magnitude. However, Woo emphasizes that the ongoing recovery toward $74,000 may not signal a genuine turnaround but rather a classic bull trap.
In a recent statement, Woo mentioned, “I will always hold my views lightly according to liquidity changes. If capital comes back in force with the right type of long-term investors, then I”ll happily change my views.”
Woo categorizes Bitcoin bear markets into three distinct phases. As of February, he observed the market transitioning from the initial phase to the second phase, characterized by diminishing liquidity impacting a broader range of risk assets. The final phase, according to his analysis, will only emerge after a deeper capitulation is followed by renewed interest from long-term investors.
His projections suggest a possible bottom around $45,000 in late 2026, with hopes for a new bullish trend beginning in 2027. The current market sentiment, as indicated by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, remains firmly in the “extreme fear” territory, signaling weak confidence among traders.
Independent analyst Benjamin Cowen also aligns with this perspective, labeling 2026 as a year characterized by bear market conditions, asserting that new all-time highs are improbable unless significant changes occur in market dynamics.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $67,000, reflecting a 3.74% increase over the last month yet still situated 46.82% below its all-time high. The cryptocurrency recently hit lows around $59,000 in February before its recent uptick.
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