VanEck”s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, has made a bold prediction regarding the future of Bitcoin (BTC). In a recent analysis, he suggested that Bitcoin could reach a staggering valuation of nearly $2.9 million by the year 2050. This forecast hinges on BTC”s potential to become a settlement currency for approximately 5% to 10% of global trade and its adoption as a reserve asset, constituting 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.
Sigel”s projections are part of VanEck”s extensive 25-year capital market assumptions. He anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 15% for Bitcoin from 2026 to 2050. This long-term valuation perspective is rooted in the notion of structural monetary adoption rather than the volatility typically associated with short-term price movements.
According to VanEck”s analysis, Bitcoin should be viewed as a non-sovereign monetary asset. Unlike traditional financial instruments evaluated through discounted cash flow or price-to-earnings ratios, Bitcoin”s value derives from its potential to penetrate two key markets: global trade settlement and official reserve assets held by central banks. Using a baseline price of around $88,000 as of December 31, 2025, the firm calculates that the price of Bitcoin could soar to $2.9 million by 2050.
VanEck has also outlined alternative scenarios to contextualize the risks involved. In a bear case scenario where Bitcoin fails to gain traction in trade settlement and reserve asset adoption, the firm estimates a modest 2% compound annual growth rate, resulting in a price of approximately $130,000 by 2050. Conversely, in an optimistic bull case scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its price could reach an astonishing $53.4 million, implying a 29% annualized return.
While VanEck aims for a long-term outlook, the current market dynamics present a contrasting picture. Matrixport has indicated that Bitcoin”s outlook for 2026 is less about entering a new cycle and more focused on “tactical” trading strategies. The firm warns that Bitcoin”s market has entered a distinctly different phase compared to previous early-cycle rebounds, with broader structural indicators suggesting challenges ahead for a bull market.
Indicators such as declining trading volumes and weakening capital inflows complicate the market environment. Historical patterns following a break below the one-year moving average suggest a selective and difficult period is on the horizon. On-chain data corroborates this sentiment, revealing that large, seasoned holders of Bitcoin are distributing their holdings while the growth of new addresses and realized-cap inflows remain stagnant. This trend points towards limited fresh capital entering the market and reduced participation from new investors.
