In a bold forecast, VanEck”s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, has projected that Bitcoin could achieve a staggering valuation of nearly $2.9 million by the year 2050. This prediction hinges on the cryptocurrency”s potential adoption as a settlement currency for 5% to 10% of global trade and its role as a reserve asset, making up 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.
Sigel outlined these insights in a comprehensive note discussing VanEck”s long-term capital market assumptions over a 25-year horizon. He anticipates a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin from 2026 to 2050, emphasizing the asset”s long-term value through structural monetary adoption rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.
This analysis positions Bitcoin as a non-sovereign monetary asset, suggesting that its valuation cannot be accurately assessed through conventional equity models like discounted cash flow or price-to-earnings ratios. Instead, VanEck”s approach is based on Bitcoin”s potential penetration into two significant markets: global trade settlements and central bank reserve assets.
According to these assumptions, VanEck”s base case projects Bitcoin”s price at approximately $88,000 by December 31, 2025, serving as a benchmark for calculating future growth rates. The asset management firm also explored alternative scenarios to illustrate potential risks. In a more pessimistic bear case, where Bitcoin fails to gain traction in trade settlements or reserve assets, the firm estimates a meager 2% CAGR, leading to a price around $130,000 by 2050. Conversely, in a bullish scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, the price could soar to approximately $53.4 million, implying a remarkable 29% annualized return.
While VanEck”s projections are rooted in long-term adoption scenarios, the current market landscape presents a contrasting narrative. Matrixport has indicated that the outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 is focused less on initiating a new cycle and more on tactical trading strategies. They describe the cryptocurrency as having entered a distinctly different regime compared to previous early-cycle rebounds. Broader structural indicators still appear to be unfavorable for a robust bull market, despite some signs of improving technical conditions.
Indicators such as declining trading volumes, weakened capital inflows, and historical patterns following a breach below the one-year moving average suggest a more selective and challenging environment ahead. On-chain data supports this perspective, showing that large, seasoned holders are gradually distributing their supply while the growth of new addresses and realized-cap inflows remains subdued, indicating limited new capital and low engagement from new investors.
As the cryptocurrency landscape evolves, observers will be keenly watching how Bitcoin navigates these challenges and whether it can fulfill the ambitious forecasts laid out by firms like VanEck.
