Recent analysis highlights a significant shift in the correlation between Bitcoin and economic indicators, particularly emphasizing the impact of Treasury T-bill issuance on Bitcoin price cycles. Over the past four years, a strong correlation of +0.80 has been observed between T-bill issuance and Bitcoin prices, overshadowing the previously relied upon metrics such as M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve”s balance sheet.
As of late 2024, T-bill issuance reached its peak, coinciding with a notable high in Bitcoin prices, which last traded at $67,721. However, as issuance began to decline in early 2026, Bitcoin”s price also exhibited signs of weakness, suggesting a direct relationship between these two financial instruments.
Crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze has pointed out that historical data indicates Bitcoin has effectively decoupled from M2 money supply during various periods. Despite M2 showing stability or even growth, Bitcoin”s price did not react similarly, indicating the diminishing reliability of M2 as a forecasting tool.
Moreover, Bitblaze”s findings reveal that the correlation between the Federal Reserve balance sheet and Bitcoin is practically negligible, recorded at -0.07. This further emphasizes the inadequacy of traditional indicators in predicting Bitcoin”s price movements.
The timeline of T-bill issuance and its effects on Bitcoin is particularly compelling. Following a peak in T-bill issuance in late 2021, Bitcoin also reached a cycle top. As T-bill issuance fell throughout 2022, Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn. Conversely, when T-bill issuance reached a low in mid-2023, Bitcoin found its price floor and both began to rise together, albeit with a noticeable lag.
As T-bill issuance peaked again in late 2024, Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory until early 2026, when issuance declined once more and Bitcoin”s price weakened in parallel. Bitblaze summarized this relationship succinctly: “When the blue line goes up, BTC follows with a delay. When it rolls over, BTC struggles.” This insight has led traders to monitor Treasury issuance schedules with the same diligence as on-chain metrics.
In conclusion, as Treasury T-bills gain recognition for their influence on Bitcoin price dynamics, the narrative surrounding macroeconomic indicators in the cryptocurrency space is evolving. The focus is shifting towards T-bill issuance as a more reliable predictor of Bitcoin price fluctuations, challenging the conventional reliance on M2 and the Fed”s balance sheet.
