The current price of Bitcoin is approximately $90,500 as the market eagerly awaits a pivotal ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the legality of former President Trump”s tariff policies. This decision is poised to have significant ramifications for risk assets, prompting traders to brace for potential volatility in either direction.
As the Supreme Court deliberates, the Trump administration”s appeal comes after lower courts determined that the tariffs overstepped presidential authority. No definitive timeline has been provided for the ruling, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. According to data from Polymarket, traders currently perceive only a 25 percent likelihood that the court will uphold these tariffs. More crucially, Bitcoin enthusiasts are pricing in a robust 75 percent chance of a price rally should the tariffs be invalidated.
The rationale behind this sentiment is anchored in the expectation of decreased policy ambiguity and an enhanced appetite for risk. A ruling against the tariffs could alleviate financial pressures across various sectors, facilitating capital flows into riskier assets and alleviating a key macroeconomic burden. Legal experts speculate that a negative ruling for the administration could unlock as much as $150 billion in potential refund claims.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a favorable response to increased clarity in macroeconomic conditions following periods of uncertainty. Presently, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, characterized by a lack of aggressive trading as participants await the outcome.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin”s Price Structure
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned within a descending triangle that has constrained volatility for several weeks. This technical formation has emerged following a drop from the November peak, which surpassed $120,000, with the price now probing the lower boundary near $90,000.
Key technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with all major exponential moving averages (EMAs) situated above the current price, creating a resistance barrier. Since late December, the 20-day EMA has consistently capped any upward movement. For buyers to regain control, they must first reclaim this critical level before attempting to breach the larger EMA cluster.
As the triangle apex approaches, a resolution is imminent. A breakout above $91,500 would shift short-term momentum positively, potentially paving the way towards $95,000. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $90,000, it would confirm the triangle”s breakdown and expose the price to the $86,000-$84,000 demand zone.
Market Indicators: RSI and Volume Trends
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band, which currently sits at approximately $90,043. The middle band, acting as the first resistance level on any upward move, is positioned at $91,360. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 45.96, indicating a neutral but slightly bearish stance, suggesting that the price could either rally or decline further based on which side of the triangle breaks first.
During this consolidation phase, trading volume has diminished, which is typical within a triangle pattern. A breakout or breakdown is expected to be accompanied by a notable surge in volume, confirming the ensuing price movement. Traders are closely monitoring the $90,000 level, which has served as psychological support multiple times since December. A breach below this level could trigger stop-loss orders and solidify a bearish bias.
In summary, the Supreme Court”s impending decision on the tariffs creates a binary scenario for Bitcoin. A ruling striking down the tariffs could catalyze a significant rally, while an affirmation of the tariffs or a price dip below $90,000 would likely confirm a bearish outlook with targets set at $86,000, and possibly $84,000 if selling intensifies.
