Concerns surrounding quantum computing are increasingly affecting the market perception of Bitcoin, particularly in comparison to gold, according to noted on-chain analyst Willy Woo. In a recent commentary on X, Woo highlighted that traders are beginning to consider the implications of a potential “Q-Day”—the moment when quantum computers could become capable of breaking the cryptographic security that underpins the Bitcoin network.
Woo argues that if quantum advancements were to occur, up to 4 million Bitcoins, typically categorized as lost due to inaccessible private keys, could potentially be retrieved. This scenario raises significant questions about Bitcoin”s scarcity narrative, as these coins could flood back into circulation if quantum computing were to compromise the security of public keys.
Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed gold dramatically, with value increases estimated at around 76 million percent as per TradingView”s ICE charts. However, Woo points out that this trend is shifting as the global long-term debt cycle approaches its peak. In times of macroeconomic stress and debt deleveraging, investors traditionally gravitate towards hard assets, leading to a surge in gold prices while Bitcoin”s growth remains relatively muted.
Quantum computing poses a serious threat to the mathematical security of digital assets. While a classical computer would take trillions of years to brute-force a Bitcoin private key, an advanced quantum system could theoretically derive such keys in mere minutes. This vulnerability extends beyond the network”s security, posing risks of a substantial liquidity crisis as long-dormant Bitcoins become accessible.
Woo emphasizes the staggering nature of this potential liquidity shock. With approximately 4 million Bitcoins considered “lost,” the re-emergence of these assets could equal eight years” worth of institutional accumulation, which only totals about 2.8 million BTC since 2020. The implications of such an influx could drastically alter market dynamics.
Despite the possibility of Bitcoin adopting quantum-resistant signatures, Woo expresses skepticism about resolving the issue of lost coins. He estimates a 75% likelihood that the network will not be able to safeguard these legacy coins through an emergency hard fork, signaling that market participants must now account for this risk.
With Q-Day anticipated to occur within the next 5 to 15 years, Bitcoin may face ongoing uncertainty, particularly during a critical period when it could serve as a vital hedge for sovereign investors. As such, while gold benefits from macroeconomic concerns, Bitcoin”s growth trajectory is hindered by the inherent technological risks posed by quantum computing. Without a cohesive strategy from developers and investors to transition, the specter of quantum risk will linger, subtly influencing market sentiment.
