Veteran trader Peter Brandt has expressed growing concern regarding the future of Bitcoin as its price momentum appears to stall. In a recent post on social media platform X, Brandt conveyed that the latest upward movement in Bitcoin”s price could represent the sole opportunity for a retest of a broadening top pattern. This formation, often referred to in technical analysis as a megaphone pattern, typically serves as a cautionary indicator that a prevailing uptrend may be nearing a bearish reversal.
Brandt stated, “This week”s rally may be all the retesting of the broadening top we will see.” He noted that Bitcoin has not yet managed to reach the upper boundary of its long-term price channel during this year”s market advances. Historical patterns suggest that such behavior could precede a decline toward the lower boundary of the channel, a range that begins below $70,000 and extends into the mid-$45,000 region. Therefore, Brandt considers that entire range as a plausible target rather than an extreme outcome.
Further emphasizing his bearish outlook, Brandt assigned a 30% probability that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for the current cycle. Should the apex occur in the latter half of September, it might be historically referenced as the “Brandt Top,” he remarked, while Bitcoin was trading near $120,000.
In a subsequent analysis in late November, Brandt revisited his bearish chart, incorporating a hand-drawn illustration of a “dead cat bounce.” This term is used to describe a temporary uptick within an overarching downward trend. He characterized Bitcoin”s recent two-week decline from above $120,000 to the low $80,000s as a complete five-wave correction, indicating that the rebound seen afterward was merely a basic recovery.
The chart highlights the critical price range that traders have been monitoring for several days, specifically around $88,000 to $92,000. Brandt pointed out that this range is currently the most significant for traders. As December commenced, Bitcoin started near $85,000 but quickly rebounded to around $94,000, reigniting trader optimism for a possible seasonal Christmas rally.
Retail investors have identified $97,000 as a key resistance level, which could act as a potential profit-taking point; however, the market has yet to reach this target. Despite recent fluctuations, Bitcoin continues to steer the direction of the broader cryptocurrency market, with many major altcoins mirroring its movements. Market sentiment typically adjusts in response to Bitcoin”s performance.
At present, participants in the market are adopting a cautious but hopeful stance, anticipating a significant breakout that could establish the market”s trajectory as it heads into 2025. On a positive note, the “extreme fear” sentiment that dominated the previous two months is beginning to shift, as evidenced by the Fear & Greed index moving from the red zone into orange.
