The probability of a US government shutdown occurring before February 14 has surged to 85%. This alarming trend comes as Bitcoin grapples with downward pressure, currently trading near $67,000. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.3 trillion, reflecting a decrease of 1.8%.
The recent shift in sentiment is illustrated by the Fear and Greed Index, which has fallen to 9, down from a previous high of 10. This decline raises concerns about BTC“s potential further drop, especially after its recent dip below the $70,000 mark during a prior partial government shutdown.
Market dynamics have been influenced by predictions from Polymarket, the largest prediction market globally, where traders indicated an 85% chance of an impending government shutdown. This figure marks a significant rise from the earlier 66% expectation amidst escalating financial tensions.
Analysts suggest that fears surrounding the government shutdown are directly linked to expiring federal funding. With negotiations seemingly stalled, there is growing skepticism about lawmakers reaching an agreement prior to the looming deadline. Reports indicate that there is little optimism surrounding the potential for a short-term funding bill.
As uncertainty persists, many traders are increasingly cautious about engaging with riskier digital assets, contributing to a broader market sell-off. On the social media platform X, various analysts weighed in on Bitcoin“s trajectory, with one user, known as “The Hunter,” warning of a potential decline to around $67,000 for BTC, $1,950 for Ethereum, and $81 for Solana. Furthermore, some analysts assert that if selling pressure continues, Bitcoin could plummet below $50,000.
In contrast, Crypto investor and NFT enthusiast Axel Bitblaze offered a more hopeful perspective, comparing Bitcoin”s current conditions to those in 2024 before a notable rebound. He foresees that the cryptocurrency may stabilize within a range of approximately $60,000 to $80,000, marked by brief spikes followed by rapid retreats.
Bitblaze further noted that the prevailing market volatility could pose significant challenges for both buyers and sellers, hindering a swift recovery. Despite his outlook on market recovery, he dismissed the notion of Bitcoin dipping to $50,000, characterizing any potential decline as a gradual erosion of trader sentiment before establishing a stable base.
As the prospect of a government shutdown looms larger, analysts have identified Bitcoin“s technical structure as vulnerable amid persistent selling pressure. They highlighted that the overall trend shifted downward after failing to breach the $95,000–$100,000 resistance zone earlier in 2026. Moreover, a breakdown occurred as the cryptocurrency”s price fell below the previously established $85,000–$90,000 consolidation range, accelerating the decline towards the $60,000–$70,000 support level.
For those seeking visibility within the crypto sector, opportunities exist to feature projects in upcoming industry reports, where data intersects with impact.
