In a significant shift, billionaire and crypto entrepreneur Mike Novogratz has revised his previous forecast for Bitcoin, moving away from his ambitious $150,000 year-end prediction for 2025. The CEO of Galaxy Digital now observes a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market, acknowledging that he underestimated the challenges facing the leading cryptocurrency.
During a recent video interview with SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz candidly admitted, “If you had asked me, I would have said 2025 is going to be a great year for Bitcoin… we”re going to end the year at 150 . We”re sitting here at about 88,000 as we”re speaking. So I totally got that wrong.” His remarks highlight a growing concern among investors as the crypto landscape appears to be in a state of retreat.
Novogratz elaborated on the psychological state of the current market, describing it as a “cortisol” environment rather than a “testosterone-fed” bull market. He referenced the concept from the book “The Hour Between the Dog and the Wolf,” which discusses the differing psychologies of bull and bear markets. According to him, the current atmosphere has been marked by negativity and hesitation, akin to a bear market where traders exhibit what he referred to as “cortisol bellies.”
One of the critical factors contributing to Bitcoin”s stagnation is the recent turmoil in October, characterized by a significant liquidation of leveraged positions that led to a sharp decline in cryptocurrency prices. This liquidation event has not only affected retail investors financially but has also taken a toll on their psychological confidence in the market.
Looking ahead, Novogratz emphasized that Bitcoin”s path to recovery will be challenging. He believes that the cryptocurrency must first reclaim the $100,000 mark, which it initially surpassed in December 2024 following Donald Trump”s reelection. This psychological barrier is crucial for regaining bullish momentum; however, Novogratz predicts that upward movement will likely face resistance from call sellers.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range of $85,000 to $90,000 as the market continues to derisk. According to data from CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency has seen a slight decline of 0.5%, currently sitting at $87,280. As the market navigates these turbulent waters, investors will be keenly watching for any signs of recovery and shifts in sentiment.
