Bitcoin continues to exhibit a series of price movements that suggest it may be entering a significant correction phase. Recent technical analysis by crypto analyst Chiefy shared on the social media platform X indicates that Bitcoin is mirroring macro structures observed following the peaks of 2017 and 2021. If this pattern persists, projections suggest that Bitcoin could decline to around $35,000 in the coming days.
Chiefy”s analysis focuses on three notable peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just over $126,000. A key trend highlighted is that after both the 2017 and 2021 peaks, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually reaching long-term lows. For instance, following the breakout above $21,000 in 2017, Bitcoin plummeted by 84% during the subsequent bear market, while the decline after the 2021 peak amounted to approximately 77%.
Chiefy described the fractal alignment of these price actions as nearly perfect, suggesting that the market might be on the brink of another capitulation phase akin to previous cycles. The current downturn from the recent high of $126,000 is beginning to reflect the structural patterns of those earlier market corrections. If Bitcoin were to replicate a similar percentage drop, market projections would place its value between $30,000 and $35,000. Chiefy warns that this potential decline could materialize within the next 10 days if the historical pattern holds.
Additional bearish factors are contributing to this scenario, including weak demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and notable whale activity. Various on-chain metrics reveal a cautious sentiment among crypto investors. Data from Glassnode shows that the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been predominantly negative for the past 90 days, indicating insufficient demand to counteract ongoing selling pressure.
Furthermore, insights from CryptoQuant”s Whales Inflow Signal metric reveal a significant increase in monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from large investors. As Bitcoin dipped from $95,000 to $60,000, inflows surged from approximately 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a remarkable spike of around 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. This trend points to a rise in selling pressure as large holders transfer assets to exchanges, a movement that has likely contributed to the recent price declines.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, reflecting a 1.7% decrease over the previous 24 hours. The current market dynamics underscore the importance of monitoring these historical patterns and on-chain data as they unfold.
