According to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, the current state of the cryptocurrency market indicates that a significant crash is unlikely. In a recent appearance on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, Alden stated, “We haven”t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation.”
Alden”s analysis suggests that the market”s trajectory is influenced more by broader macroeconomic factors and less by traditional cycles such as the Bitcoin halving. This perspective aligns with views expressed by other industry leaders, including Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise, who also downplayed the relevance of the four-year cycle theory. He noted that the market may experience prolonged fluctuations that extend beyond typical expectations.
While Alden remains optimistic about the lack of imminent capitulation, not all market participants share her outlook. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently articulated a more cautious stance, forecasting a potential Bitcoin (BTC) retracement of 65% to 70% over the next two years. This divergence in opinion highlights the uncertainty that still looms over the market.
Alden further emphasized that market outcomes rarely align with the extremes that investors anticipate. “It”s usually not as good as people expect and it”s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she remarked.
As of now, Bitcoin has been in a downward trend since it achieved a record high of $125,100 on October 5. The cryptocurrency has since dipped to a low of $80,700 before slightly recovering to $85,710, reflecting a 22.46% decrease over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Market sentiment has soured, with many traders anticipating a robust year-end performance and potential new highs. Some, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, have projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000. However, Alden cautioned against assuming that bullish market conditions are guaranteed, stating, “No one is owed a bull market.” She predicts that Bitcoin may reclaim the $100,000 mark by 2026, potentially setting new all-time highs either that year or in 2027.
As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, investors must navigate these varying perspectives and remain vigilant about the underlying factors influencing market dynamics.
