Bitcoin may have entered a bear market several weeks ago, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. This assertion was made during a recent episode of the Milk Road show, even as some analysts maintain optimistic projections for the cryptocurrency in 2026.
Moreno noted that various indicators monitored by CryptoQuant, particularly the firm”s bull score index, began signaling bearish conditions in early November and have not shown signs of recovery. This index, which scores between 0 and 100, aggregates diverse metrics such as network activity, investor profitability, demand for Bitcoin, and overall market liquidity to assess prevailing market dynamics.
One of the critical indicators confirming this bearish trend was Bitcoin“s price dropping below its one-year moving average. Moreno emphasized the significance of this technical signal, stating, “For me the last confirmation, it”s a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average.” Such movements typically indicate a market shift toward bearish conditions.
At the start of 2025, Bitcoin traded at approximately $93,000 and reached a peak of $126,080 in October, according to data sourced from CoinGecko. However, it concluded the year below its initial trading level, which raises questions regarding the anticipated price stability following the halving period. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $88,716.
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, Moreno”s analysis stands in stark contrast to bullish predictions from other analysts who see 2026 as a pivotal growth year for the asset. Assessing potential future price movements, Moreno suggested that the bottom for Bitcoin could range between $56,000 and $60,000 in the forthcoming year. This estimate is derived from the realized price of Bitcoin, which reflects the average price at which holders acquired their coins, alongside historical patterns observed in previous bear markets.
Moreno pointed out that, historically, during bear markets, Bitcoin prices often drop to this realized price level. A decline to the $56,000 mark would represent a significant drop of approximately 55% from the all-time high. However, he noted that this would be less severe compared to past cycles where Bitcoin has experienced declines of 70% to 80%.
Additionally, Moreno highlighted that the current market downturn appears more stable than those seen in previous years. Unlike the tumultuous bear market of 2022, which was characterized by notable industry collapses such as the Terra ecosystem and FTX, the current phase has not witnessed similarly catastrophic failures. He attributed this relative stability to structural changes within the market, including the involvement of large institutional players and exchange-traded funds that tend to buy on a more consistent basis and are less inclined to sell during downturns. This ongoing demand helps to mitigate price declines.
Moreno concluded that the presence of a broader base of investors and more established entities within the sector suggests that if Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, it may exhibit less volatility compared to previous downturns.
