The recent rebound in Bitcoin prices is being driven by actual buying activity in the spot market, as opposed to speculative leverage, according to new on-chain data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by analyst Amr Taha. The analysis focuses on the Spot and Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) over a 90-day period, a crucial metric that indicates whether aggressive buyers or sellers are dominating the market.
The first chart illustrates a significant shift in Bitcoin”s Spot Taker CVD, which turned green in late December and has continued this trend into January. Green bars indicate that buyers are taking the initiative in purchasing BTC on spot exchanges, marking a departure from a previous phase dominated by sellers. This transition suggests a resurgence of authentic demand, countering the idea that prices were merely supported by short-term derivative positioning.
During this period, Bitcoin”s price has stabilized and rebounded, reaching the $90,000–$95,000 range, closely aligning with the uptick in spot-side demand.
In a complementary narrative, the second chart concerning Bitcoin Futures Taker CVD indicates that futures activity also shifted towards buy dominance, but only after the spot market had shown signs of recovery. This sequence is significant, as typically in overheated markets, futures leverage leads price movements, pushing prices higher before spot demand materializes. However, in this instance, genuine spot buying was the precursor, with leveraged traders following suit.
According to CryptoQuant, this pattern implies that the market is not experiencing a late-stage leverage-driven rally; instead, it is in an early-to-mid phase of demand recovery. This distinction is critical for traders focusing on market sustainability rather than fleeting momentum.
Understanding market structure is essential, as leverage-driven rallies can quickly unravel, causing rapid liquidations with minor price shifts. Conversely, advances led by spot demand are generally more sustainable, reflecting actual capital deployment rather than borrowed funds. With spot capital currently leading the way, several implications arise:
- The risk of mass liquidations is diminished.
- The overall price action appears to be healthier structurally.
- Medium-term potential for upside increases without immediate overheating.
Amr Taha emphasizes that the current rebound is fundamentally “built by spot demand, not leverage,” a vital insight for traders monitoring market stability over short-term fluctuations.
The broader take from CryptoQuant”s analysis is that Bitcoin”s recovery is underpinned by genuine buyer interest rather than speculative excess. While volatility remains a factor in the equation, the predominance of spot buying indicates a market that is regaining strength rather than chasing after a fragile breakout. If this spot demand continues to effectively absorb supply at current levels, Bitcoin may find itself in a position to consolidate or gradually rise without the typical instability associated with leverage-heavy rallies.
