As Bitcoin continues to grapple with the $100,000 mark, analysts are dissecting the reasons behind its persistent struggles. Recent evaluations indicate that the cryptocurrency”s inability to breach this psychological threshold is not primarily due to trader hesitance or fear but is largely influenced by the underlying market structure.
According to market analyst David Eng, the current resistance near $100,000 is significantly impacted by concentrated options trading rather than mere sentiment. Eng”s analysis reveals that about $231 million in call gamma is clustered at the $100,000, $105,000, and $110,000 levels. This concentration means that as Bitcoin approaches these strike prices, traders must engage in spot selling to maintain delta neutrality, creating a mechanical selling pressure rather than a directional one.
Institutions are notably involved in this dynamic, frequently overwriting call options to generate yield. Consequently, each rally towards these strike prices triggers automatic supply, making it increasingly challenging for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum. Currently, it is estimated that an influx of approximately $30 million in net buying is necessary to elevate the price towards $95,000, while a climb to $100,000 would demand around $463 million. This indicates a substantial increase in required capital for a relatively modest price gain, elucidating why upward movements have been consistently hindered.
However, this mechanical pressure is anticipated to be short-lived. A significant portion of the gamma exposure is set to expire in the coming weeks, with around 11% rolling off on January 16 and a more substantial 43% expected to expire on January 30. As this exposure unwinds, the forced selling that has been constraining price action may diminish, potentially allowing for a resurgence in organic spot flows through February and March.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently striving to reclaim its yearly opening price from 2025. Analyst Ted Pillows emphasizes that achieving several daily closes above this critical level would significantly enhance the likelihood of a breakout towards the elusive $100,000 mark within weeks. Conversely, failure to maintain this upward trajectory could see prices retreating to the support zone between $90,000 and $91,000.
At present, the market conditions present a mix of optimism and caution. Bitcoin has experienced a 1% increase in the last 24 hours and nearly a 7% rise over the past week, buoyed by ETF inflows exceeding $4.1 billion since May 2025, alongside ongoing corporate accumulation.
