Recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin may have concluded its historical four-year halving cycle, potentially indicating a challenging year ahead, despite widespread expectations for a prolonged bull market fueled by regulatory advancements. According to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomic research at Fidelity, the cryptocurrency”s peak at $125,000 on October 6 could represent the apex of the current cycle in both pricing and timing.
Timmer articulated his perspective in a post on X, stating, “While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase.” He noted that historical trends indicate Bitcoin winters typically span about a year, leading him to speculate that 2026 could serve as an “off year” for the leading cryptocurrency. He identified support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
This viewpoint contrasts sharply with other analysts in the crypto space. For instance, Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, anticipates new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026, following a recovery in investor sentiment from the significant $19 billion market crash earlier this month. In his assessment, Shaughnessy emphasized the need to navigate through the aftermath of the “10/10 liquidation event,” which he believes has skewed current market conditions.
Shaughnessy remarked, “Once that”s worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices rubber band to reflect the progress outside 10/10.” He expressed confidence that the industry”s fundamental advancements, particularly in Wall Street integrations and regulatory measures, will drive market valuations moving forward.
In a broader context, policy experts project that 2026 will be pivotal for US cryptocurrency regulation, which may enhance institutional investment within the sector. Cathy Yoon, general counsel at Temporal and the Solana block-building system Harmonic, shared insights on this topic, stating, “I do expect 2026 to be another meaningful year for crypto regulation, but it will look different from the last one.” She pointed out that the passage of stablecoin legislation will shift focus toward its implementation, including necessary examinations and disclosures.
However, social sentiment among investors has taken a notable downturn, especially after Bitcoin fell below $85,000 this week. Analysis from market intelligence platform Santiment indicates that bearish sentiments have become prevalent across social media platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram. Additionally, data from Nansen, which tracks high-performing traders known as “smart money,” reveals that this cohort is currently positioned for a short-term decline in leading cryptocurrencies, with net short positions amounting to $123 million for Bitcoin.
In contrast, Ether (ETH) has seen a different trend, as this same group has accumulated $475 million in net long positions, suggesting a potential divergence in market strategies among cryptocurrencies.
