Recent fluctuations in Bitcoin have prompted numerous emotional appeals for a bear market. However, data indicates that traders might be overlooking critical factors. Instead of fixating on price movements, experienced investors are focusing on the entry points of long-term holders, as cycles typically do not collapse when most committed investors are still in profit.
At the center of this discussion is the $94,000 zone. Blockchain data models highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki-young Ju reveal that the average cost basis for buyers from the last six to twelve months is concentrated around this level. As long as these wallets remain above their break-even point, the investors who absorbed most of the supply during the previous accumulation phase have little reason to sell. Conversely, if these wallets dip into losses, historical patterns suggest that liquidation may occur.
It”s essential to recognize that merely experiencing discomfort in price action does not equate to the onset of a bear market. This distinction is particularly relevant now, considering the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including the unprecedented 43-day U.S. government shutdown and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. Although the price movement may be unsettling, unease does not signify a definitive trend reversal.
A genuine breakdown would require long-term holders to face pressure to liquidate their positions. This pressure is not generated by sensational headlines but rather from their entry price transitioning from a support level to a resistance one. The significant signal for market participants has yet to manifest.
Bitcoin has already dipped below key psychological thresholds, such as $100,000. While such headlines influence sentiment, they do not dictate the market cycle. A more profound pivot will only occur if the $94,000 cost-basis floor is breached.
For the time being, most committed buyers are still enjoying profits rather than facing losses. Ju”s perspective is neither overtly bullish nor bearish; rather, it is methodical. The market currently has one clear point of invalidation. If the $94,000 support holds, the existing cycle structure remains intact. However, if it fails convincingly, the market could be opening the door to a genuine bear phase.
The irony lies in the fact that many traders are eager to forecast the next phase. In reality, the more prudent approach might be to monitor whether this critical level holds firm or falters. At this moment, the market does not require speculation but rather confirmation of its trajectory.
