Bitcoin is currently trading around $71.2K, representing a 2% decline over the last 24 hours, as highlighted in the latest report from Glassnode. The analysis reveals a significant contraction in realized profits, which have plummeted by approximately 63% to around $370 million per day. This decline in profitability indicates a weakening demand for the cryptocurrency.
According to Glassnode, about 57% of the total Bitcoin supply is now in profit, which breaches a critical threshold historically associated with the onset of bear markets. Similar conditions were observed during previous downturns in May 2022 and November 2018. The current state of the market signals that investors are adopting defensive positions, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders.
The report also notes that the options market is showing signs of a hesitant approach to any potential relief rally. The put/call ratio has dramatically dropped from 1.89 on February 28 to 0.4, with approximately $14.5 million in net call premiums accumulating at the $75,000 strike price over the past week.
Furthermore, the 30-day smoothed average of realized profits serves as a proxy for buyer engagement and capital inflows, having decreased from over $1 billion to the current $370 million per day, marking the lowest levels since August-September 2024.
Glassnode warns of the diminishing buy-side demand, as indicated by on-chain data, which shows that profit-taking is weakening and supply conditions are slipping into levels that typically signal the beginning of bear market phases. Despite these bearish indicators, not all aspects of the market are pointing downward.
Short-term holders who acquired Bitcoin within the past month have a cost basis close to $70K, establishing this price range as a significant resistance and distribution zone. The analysis identifies the near-term trading range for Bitcoin to be between $68,500 and $71,500.
In relation to the broader market, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have shown signs of stabilization following a period of heavy redemptions. Since November 2025, these products have experienced $7.8 billion in net outflows, equivalent to roughly 12% of total ETF assets, although recent movements indicate a flattening trend in the seven-day moving average.
The fragility of the current market environment, characterized by weak demand and defensive positioning, underscores the need for cautious navigation by traders and investors alike.
