Bitcoin has demonstrated a degree of stabilization as the new year begins, recording a rise of over 3% in its early trading sessions despite a backdrop of declining equity markets. This shift indicates a potential narrowing of divergence, though challenges from macroeconomic conditions persist.
The modest recovery comes after a lackluster performance in December, attributed more to typical year-end market dynamics—characterized by reduced liquidity, tax-loss selling, and portfolio rebalancing—than to any specific issues within the cryptocurrency space. Analysts from Bitfinex have noted that the weak trading conditions in late December were not driven by fresh shocks to the cryptocurrency market.
The rise in Bitcoin prices at the start of 2026 has been observed alongside a softening of stock market performance, a trend that traders are closely monitoring for indications that the current divergence might lessen. The report from Bitfinex suggests that the slowdown in ETF-related selling towards the end of the year indicates that significant de-risking has likely already taken place, which may enhance liquidity going forward.
As liquidity improves throughout January, the forthcoming ETF flow data will be crucial in determining whether institutional investments are re-entering the market or if caution prevails among investors. Notably, corporate treasury accumulation continues, with firms like Strategy increasing their holdings of Bitcoin, even while reporting substantial unrealized losses.
On the macroeconomic front, Bitfinex paints a mixed picture. They observe a steepening of the US yield curve, with expectations that short-term yields will decline as easing occurs, while long-term yields remain high due to inflation uncertainties and fiscal pressures. The analysis also highlights a weakening US dollar early in the year.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin is showing signs of price stabilization and potential easing of selling pressure, the overall macroeconomic landscape and ETF flow trends will be key determinants in whether this stabilization can lead to a sustained upward movement in price.
