Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant rise in early January, according to recent analyses that reference historical market behaviors. Despite facing considerable challenges throughout 2025, analysts suggest that Bitcoin often sees positive performance during the early days of the New Year.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, highlighted on social media platform X that Bitcoin”s market dynamics around the New Year have historically leaned towards a bullish outlook. His observations indicate that only three out of the past years have shown negative returns in the week following December 31, translating to a 66% likelihood of at least a 10% increase in the first week of January.
This pattern has remained consistent even in the wake of weak year-end performances, as seen in 2022 when Bitcoin initially declined but quickly rebounded. Wedson elaborated on Bitcoin”s cyclical nature, noting that historically, there are about 109 to 110 weeks where the transition from Sunday to Monday begins on a positive note. However, he also pointed out an increase in weeks that start with declines, estimating around 100 such weeks in the current cycle, complicating short-term trading strategies.
The year 2025 has been particularly challenging for Bitcoin, with only 21 weeks beginning positively compared to 31 weeks that started with declines. This trend suggests less favorable timing for accumulating Bitcoin during this period. Despite these obstacles, Bitcoin”s performance has remained relatively stable, closing the year with only a 10% drop, a much milder outcome than the steep declines seen in previous years such as 2018 and 2022.
To support the forecast of a potential positive January, on-chain data reveals limited selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. Axel Adler Junior, a crypto analyst, reported that the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Distribution Pressure Index has entered an accumulation zone, indicating lower selling activity among long-term holders. The current Z-score of this index stands at -1.628, below the threshold that typically signifies high distribution.
Adler noted a temporary spike in selling on December 10-11, when long-term holders increased their spending, but this trend quickly subsided. Since then, the selling activity has remained low, with the seven-day average of long-term holder spending dropping to approximately 221 BTC. Additionally, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) currently sits at 1.13, indicating that holders are not in a rush to liquidate their assets.
As the New Year approaches, market participants will be keenly observing whether Bitcoin”s historical trend of gains in early January will hold true, particularly amid the prevailing market conditions.
