The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has found itself in a constricted trading range for almost ten weeks, leaving traders feeling both bored and wary. As February approaches, historical trends indicate that Bitcoin has typically experienced an average gain of 13% during this month. This statistic has piqued the interest of many investors, sparking speculation about whether February will finally see a significant breakout for Bitcoin.
Following a sharp price surge to approximately $97,400 on January 20, Bitcoin experienced a swift decline, plummeting to nearly $87,900 within just two days. This drop was largely attributed to heightened caution in global markets after U.S. President Donald Trump issued warnings regarding potential tariffs on the European Union, amid rising tensions related to Greenland. The resulting sell-off led to severe liquidations, wiping out over $1.09 billion in leveraged long positions and erasing nearly $150 billion from the entire cryptocurrency market”s value.
Compounding the bearish sentiment were significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded total withdrawals of approximately $1.61 billion over a four-day period. In the aftermath of this downturn, Bitcoin has faced challenges in gaining upward momentum.
Despite this negative outlook, there was a slight improvement in sentiment when Trump softened his stance, allowing Bitcoin to recover nearly 3% toward the $90,000 mark. An analysis of the weekly chart reveals that Bitcoin continues to operate within a rising channel, currently resting near the lower support zone of $88,000–$90,000. This level has proven resilient multiple times since December. Conversely, strong resistance lies between $100,500 and $105,000, which corresponds with the mid-to-upper range of the channel, stifling any further upward movement for the time being. The 20-week moving average located around $100,600 is also acting as a formidable barrier.
If the current support level fails, the next significant risk area could be around $76,500, where further declines may occur.
From a historical perspective, February tends to favor Bitcoin bulls. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has closed February in positive territory 10 out of the last 13 years, averaging a gain of around 13%. Following a disappointing end to the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has managed to record a modest 2% increase in January 2026, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. Should this historical trend continue, Bitcoin may bounce back from its current support level and aim for the $100,000–$105,000 resistance zone. As it stands, Bitcoin remains locked in a phase of consolidation, currently trading at approximately $89,422.
